Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Government is the cause of financial panics, not markets

Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government--simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life--such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes--and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them.
The central banking system is unstable , or rather government is unstable and leans on central banking. I can put up one chart and whow that by George A. Akerlof (Author), Robert J. Shiller (Author) are full of crap on their animal spirits crap:


And we see that the cycles are aligned with presidential regime changes. Further we see the central bank 40 year monetary cycle in plan view.
This is not animal spirits, animal spirits can be contained in a sandbox system with a standard currency banker.

The cycles are caused by Shciller and Akerlof being incorrect in their analysis and forcing government into destructive pro-cyclical cycles.

It is different in the sandbox.  We do not have the deposits and loans split across various venues because government liquidity does not need to be guaranteed. In sandbox we assume occasional government default.

Animal spirits are analyzable in sandbox as auto-pricing is as accurate and as fast as any deposit or loan action. 

Look at the central bank balance sheet.  All the assets are government assets, all the deposits are regulated banks.  That is a bifurcation destined to cause panics. So do not buy into the Shiller herding crap, it is crap produced because Shiller is deathly afraid that Treasury will not meet its liquidity requirements. I am sorry Shiller, you do not count, the sandbox is doing this right.

Do we have panics in bitcoin?  Not from fear of bank failure, no. Bitcoin does not have a Congress that can suddenly change terms of trade.

What is happening is the usual Keynesians plot.  They are stuck, they had a meeting and decided to send Schiller out with a bunch of horse manure.

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