Illinois governor says state has gotten 10 percent of medical equipments it's requested
Illinois is still the sixth largest state, New York flat on its back. Is the governor asking Texas or Califorina? Florida seems clueless. Illinois the most likely place to find them anyway. The governor must be confused, thinking there is a Godot somewhere.
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Every piece of California pension disaster you never want to hear
What Happens as State and Local Tax Revenues Crater? – Charles Hugh Smith (03/31/2020)
California in nightmaresville.
I cannot write a musical until the death rates drop, even I have an Overton Window. We need to return to the time when people died the old fashioned way, from slavery, like 2019.
I cannot write a musical until the death rates drop, even I have an Overton Window. We need to return to the time when people died the old fashioned way, from slavery, like 2019.
My lifesyle is the same
I planned on being broke in March well before the virus as I have two property taxes due in the two months. I planned on having Luddite fever as the lawn and house needed service. I was thinking of retiring, again. I have retired at each of the last three 'This time is different' blue bars, so I was retiring from the last thing I was doing.
I come back and I am hit with yet another 'This time is different'. I was kind of hedging a lot when I predicted that we could bounce along near zero for some time. My own little hopeful Godot moment fails me again. I knew I was wrong because I am almost always wrong in my predictions. I am much better predicting the past, I should have been a historian.
I come back and I am hit with yet another 'This time is different'. I was kind of hedging a lot when I predicted that we could bounce along near zero for some time. My own little hopeful Godot moment fails me again. I knew I was wrong because I am almost always wrong in my predictions. I am much better predicting the past, I should have been a historian.
Focus resources on Mew York
We do the most good, but more important, we are learning the most. Testing is accurately reported, numbers are large, things change quickly and trials come to completion sooner.
My environment can wait three weeks before the panic, if the rates remain scaled lower than NYC. I am better off getting more tirials done, more production up and running for New York, thne things look systematic in three weeks for this ag valley.
My environment can wait three weeks before the panic, if the rates remain scaled lower than NYC. I am better off getting more tirials done, more production up and running for New York, thne things look systematic in three weeks for this ag valley.
My default machine part nine
My profit machine buys government bonds with created tax dollars, and defaults them opportunistically as needed to meet its default contract.
It will buy its bonds across the curve, in upward sloping fashion. Whenever it sees a low volume moment in the bond market it will erase a portion of its portfolio. But to the bond market, the best defense is a smoothly liquid bond market of appropriate size. They will instinctively cover the low volume moments. Or government agencies will, like I say, avoid the almost fixed interest premium. The result is efficiency in debt management, and still the only path is for the machine to take losses and cut interest rates to government in meeting its contract. We will no see a large Nixon Hump of a impulse response. Productivity gains take most of the pain and Fed market share increases again, sooner than we think.
The machine is really an accounting rule, a command to boomers and millennials to settle accounts the good old Coasian method and bet a number. Like an SEC mark to market rule. Once the long term bet is made, the excitement is beating that bet with productivity, eat them on time to completion and cover part of that premium.
The rule is something like:
When ond market volume drops by more than 1.5 sigma then a portion of the bond holdings default, up to a rate of 2% of NGDP per year. If not, interest charges excess interest earnings shall be remitted to Treasury to make the same rate.
A rule that operates off the Fed balance sheet for example. But it become obvious by structure, the only way to beat the rule is government productivity, and a 1% productivity gain is about all that is needed. Treasury owes about a GDPs worth of debt, it will see that pile erase at 2% er year, no matter what and Congress gets some breathing space, enough space so senators get clues. This is as close as sandbox gets you to godot.
It will buy its bonds across the curve, in upward sloping fashion. Whenever it sees a low volume moment in the bond market it will erase a portion of its portfolio. But to the bond market, the best defense is a smoothly liquid bond market of appropriate size. They will instinctively cover the low volume moments. Or government agencies will, like I say, avoid the almost fixed interest premium. The result is efficiency in debt management, and still the only path is for the machine to take losses and cut interest rates to government in meeting its contract. We will no see a large Nixon Hump of a impulse response. Productivity gains take most of the pain and Fed market share increases again, sooner than we think.
The machine is really an accounting rule, a command to boomers and millennials to settle accounts the good old Coasian method and bet a number. Like an SEC mark to market rule. Once the long term bet is made, the excitement is beating that bet with productivity, eat them on time to completion and cover part of that premium.
The rule is something like:
When ond market volume drops by more than 1.5 sigma then a portion of the bond holdings default, up to a rate of 2% of NGDP per year. If not, interest charges excess interest earnings shall be remitted to Treasury to make the same rate.
A rule that operates off the Fed balance sheet for example. But it become obvious by structure, the only way to beat the rule is government productivity, and a 1% productivity gain is about all that is needed. Treasury owes about a GDPs worth of debt, it will see that pile erase at 2% er year, no matter what and Congress gets some breathing space, enough space so senators get clues. This is as close as sandbox gets you to godot.
This time is different, in recent memory
- Bush, 9/11 and the Iraq War
- 2009 crash
- today
That is not deja vu, that is an institutional pattern, in a spiral, I might add. Remember that 2009 crash includes a flu pandemic that is still tracking worse than corona in Q1. Separate the current expenses from the bailouts, separate the accounts. If we bet the bailouts we save the anxiety of self denial.
Thomas Aquinas was wrong, there is no infinite divisibility
Good enough for the simple minded like Newton.
Thomas theory was defeated by quantum and relativity physics, two side of the same coin. Both theories said Godot was an approximation needing adjustment at the extreme points.
The semantics of science were those of Thomas until about 1920. An infinitely divisible background was as good as needed; like the Ptolemaic system was good enough until we got good chronometers. In the race between goods and information about goods, there is another race between engineering and news about engineering. The physicists are like advanced marketing agents for new engineering tools. Physicists are tool sellers to the engineers.
Thomas theory was defeated by quantum and relativity physics, two side of the same coin. Both theories said Godot was an approximation needing adjustment at the extreme points.
The semantics of science were those of Thomas until about 1920. An infinitely divisible background was as good as needed; like the Ptolemaic system was good enough until we got good chronometers. In the race between goods and information about goods, there is another race between engineering and news about engineering. The physicists are like advanced marketing agents for new engineering tools. Physicists are tool sellers to the engineers.
NYC and mass transit
New York State Has 10 Times The COVID-19 Cases California Has. Why?
Mass transit had the virus spread everywhere almost within a day. One cough and it hangs in the subway car an hours, while thousands of people get on and off. The same spreaders, for three days, riding the transit to work.
LA and the bay area are still predominantly spread out suburban car cultures. In Fresno, car culture rules especially now and spread from central Fresno to the northern suburbs should be two weeks slower than in New York. So out curve is a bit flattened already, the maximum number of extra hospital beds per capita we need much lower than NYC.
NYC is entering phase three, we might say. We want to look at deaths per test per number testing positive. If we get an accurate stat, we want to see if it falls or levels during phase three. If mass transit is spreading the virus then mass transit will also block the virus as more anti-bodies ride the train and absorb the excess virus.
NYC is a classic case, the subway cars are really fixed bandwidth and at equilibrium, the immune and the infected will split the bandwidth. The virus looking for arbitrage opportuniies, but the opportunities close off in two weeks as immunity builds. Then the anti-bodies keep that route shut for the season. We can see the train become a very light gray and the two colors, black and white, pack the channel.
NYC is entering phase three, we might say. We want to look at deaths per test per number testing positive. If we get an accurate stat, we want to see if it falls or levels during phase three. If mass transit is spreading the virus then mass transit will also block the virus as more anti-bodies ride the train and absorb the excess virus.
NYC is a classic case, the subway cars are really fixed bandwidth and at equilibrium, the immune and the infected will split the bandwidth. The virus looking for arbitrage opportuniies, but the opportunities close off in two weeks as immunity builds. Then the anti-bodies keep that route shut for the season. We can see the train become a very light gray and the two colors, black and white, pack the channel.
Seems like something amiss?
Trump: Time to Start a $2 Trillion Infrastructure Bill
Instead of sane and rational senatorial management we have hysteria, hysteria about the demands back home. Turbulent, but well deserved considering the forty years of senatorial mismanagement boomers have inflicted upon us.
President Donald Trump is pressing the gas on getting another stimulus bill passed to pump more money into an economy that's been crippled by the coronavirus pandemic.A lot of the small states are really facing an existential moment is my guess. The is earmark time, a huge, one time payment to the senators to bring home. I could see this coming early in the stimulus, it was originally about direct payments to state capitals.
"With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4," Trump tweeted on Tuesday morning.
Instead of sane and rational senatorial management we have hysteria, hysteria about the demands back home. Turbulent, but well deserved considering the forty years of senatorial mismanagement boomers have inflicted upon us.
A sandbox example
Recent Trouble Among Money-Market Mutual Funds, and the Way Forward
There was a singular MMMF run in 2008. To summarize what I wrote about it here, the Reserve Primary Fund suffered losses when the failure of Lehman Brothers drove down the market value of its portfolio. The Fund neither injected capital nor promptly marked down its share price from its conventional $1 price (it did not "break the buck" until two days later). Shareholders saw that redeeming immediately would mean getting $1 per share, but those at the end of the line would get less. So they ran. The Reserve Primary Fund belatedly reduced its redemption price to 97 cents, meaning that the remaining customers took a 3 percent haircut.Larry White talking about the Fed intermediating in the money market funds.
If the fund managers immediately mark the value of the fund according to the withdrawals (or deposits), then they remove arbitrage, no congestion. His analysis is all about congestion management, he is a sandboxer.
Hospitals going through a requant
In sandbox that means the value chain cannot adapt its encoder and remain within bounded error, a sequence of node exchanges will not adapt the medical chain. Requant means non-adiabatic. I think a requant means the before and after forms are relatively prime. In essence, the aliasing sidelobes get quantized.
Total medical costs are down, there are fewer deaths everywhere except the virus wards. On death count, medicine has never performed better, life expectancy is rising due to the shutdown. We all pay for the shutdown, actual direct costs will be a five year loan of $500 billion to the medical system, they will pay it off at a profit. Insurance companies are receiving payments and seeing fewer inijuries and illnesses, at this moment.
OK, great, they are more instantly prepared for these corona virus outbreaks which seem to be expected in the medical industry anyway. Hospitals are the textbook case of PSST.
Total medical costs are down, there are fewer deaths everywhere except the virus wards. On death count, medicine has never performed better, life expectancy is rising due to the shutdown. We all pay for the shutdown, actual direct costs will be a five year loan of $500 billion to the medical system, they will pay it off at a profit. Insurance companies are receiving payments and seeing fewer inijuries and illnesses, at this moment.
OK, great, they are more instantly prepared for these corona virus outbreaks which seem to be expected in the medical industry anyway. Hospitals are the textbook case of PSST.
I use commercial property income to pay residential property taxes
"We're Not Making Any April Payments" - Unprecedented Clash Erupts Between Tenants And Landlords
And the unions use my property taxes to pay expenses for retired teachers in Arizona. And Arizona elects bonehead Senators who waste trillions in defense spending.
Waddya gonna do? Get a commercial property tax break in the Cares Act? We still face the prop 13 revision, which hits strip malls the worst. Then we face the on line sellers.
I know a company in hospital plumbing, my inside investment. Demand be through the roof. Seems a mundane business, but not for hospitals, it is like an artery system. I know the company, a fellow partner in commercial strip mall We were attempting to price prop 13 risk, tenant risk and other alternative investments. He convinced me, hospital plumbing is some big news.
I know a company in hospital plumbing, my inside investment. Demand be through the roof. Seems a mundane business, but not for hospitals, it is like an artery system. I know the company, a fellow partner in commercial strip mall We were attempting to price prop 13 risk, tenant risk and other alternative investments. He convinced me, hospital plumbing is some big news.
My automatic default machine and the Cares Act
The default machine is a computer process and buys government bonds, holds them earning interest, and opportunistically erases bonds at a rate of 2% GDP per year, for 15 years until contract renewal.
The dynamics predict a high ten year rate for government, like 4.5%, and volatility spikes up to 7%.. Government agencies seek to avoid the interest charges, they are cash flow. The debt available for the default machine becomes scarce and the machine must cut its charged interest on its holdings. So this machine, under a 15 year contract is slowed down by productivity improvements, government makes money by producing a 1% productivity gain to offset, that means agencies want direct or indirect accounts in the Fed system. Retail monopsony fee drops.
In other words, we get past the hump, and our hump is much smaller than the hump after Nixon shock. The numbers I am talking about over 15 years is the same rate as the Cares stimulus allowance for Fed losses. Already new Cares bills are in the pipeline, so the theory here is, let's bet the entire channel, let us make a long term bet on the default queue size for this default machine. Make our blunders a bettable process.
The dynamics predict a high ten year rate for government, like 4.5%, and volatility spikes up to 7%.. Government agencies seek to avoid the interest charges, they are cash flow. The debt available for the default machine becomes scarce and the machine must cut its charged interest on its holdings. So this machine, under a 15 year contract is slowed down by productivity improvements, government makes money by producing a 1% productivity gain to offset, that means agencies want direct or indirect accounts in the Fed system. Retail monopsony fee drops.
In other words, we get past the hump, and our hump is much smaller than the hump after Nixon shock. The numbers I am talking about over 15 years is the same rate as the Cares stimulus allowance for Fed losses. Already new Cares bills are in the pipeline, so the theory here is, let's bet the entire channel, let us make a long term bet on the default queue size for this default machine. Make our blunders a bettable process.
Monday, March 30, 2020
The chart showed this before the virus
Chart is a prediction from here.
We have an MMT moment arriving about now, in any event.
Do we wish for a Medical Force or a Texas Space Cadet Force?
My favorite fascist medical care, direct execution.
Tax battle are back
Pelosi: Let’s Retroactively Roll Back SALT Caps To Help Out Blue-State Millionaires
That din't take long, an I notice the Repubs slipped a nice tax cut in the stimulus:
This is tax cuts and bailouts, Nancy knows it, the Repubs know it; anyone who believes the Godot shit is nuts. This is business as usual. Nancy is not about to deal with any reform of the Senate earmark system, she knows we are dealing with some pretty foolish idiots in the Senate. Her job is to get her people their fair share of the Swamp flow. No one back there is going to attempt any intelligent discussion with the likes of Tom Cotton, it is a waste of time.
The quote might have been from 2008
Fed's Kashkari Goes Full-On God-Complex, Lectures "This Is Not The Time To Worry About Moral Hazard"
Prayers to Godot are common around these times.Sudden stop in mortgage payments
There's another 'epidemic' ripping through America that, for many on Wall Street, is just as terrifying as COVID-19... and this time The Fed is to blame.
We reported last week on the multitude of mortgage companies that were facing an existential threat from massive margin calls:
So the price of the mortgage debt held is dropping way below expectations based on short term debt in these holders. How can the Fed deny the bailout?First, its was AG Mortgage Investment Trust which on Friday said it failed to meet some margin calls and doesn’t expect to be able to meet future margin calls with its current financing. Then it was TPG RE Finance Trust which also hit a liquidity wall and could not repay its lenders. Then, on Monday it was first Invesco, then ED&F Man Capital, and now the mortgage mayhem that erupted as a daisy-chain of mortgage REITs suddenly imploded, has taken down MFA Financial, whose crashing stock was halted after the company reported that "due to the turmoil in the financial markets resulting from the global pandemic of the COVID-19 virus, the Company and its subsidiaries have received an unusually high number of margin calls from financing counterparties, and have also experienced higher funding costs in respect of its repurchase agreements."
My virus model says things normalize in two quarters, the virus has found its place. The Fed buys their distressed debt at a bit of a premium, things approach normal? No, this, like I say, was a regularly scheduled recession, the piling on will be enormous. Everyone wants to settle old accounts. This is especially the millennial moment, like the young teachers stuck at the bad end of a two tiered union structure. This group is looking at forty more years of this and saying, no, let us settle some long term issues.
Expected medical costs in my hometown
I estimate them.
I think our neighborhood size is 150,000 and each neighborhood will need five hundred beds for six weeks, but the neighborhoods will be split in phases as the virus spread. Total beds needed should remain at five hundred, and existing beds handle inter phase bulge. My total need is five hundred beds extra over ten weeks to accommodate 60 dead.. I see the total costs at a billion. The population here is a half million. We are an ag town with a major transport artery running through.
My numbers will be well within ball park, I know a whole lot about people, laces and things and how they congregate around here. Phase two will be the worst, but it hits in central Fresno, about a third of us. But the burbs have sharp boundaries, the inter phase delay is another three weeks.
Total medical costs are dropping everywhere because much fewer people are dying during the lock down. Fewer accidents, fewer heart attacks, less flu. We suffer surge pricing on certain medical specialties, like dealing with an unsolved corona virus.
Otherwise, I fully expected quite a few shut downs in California, mostly union strikes and chaotic battles over commercial property taxes. Many town already on the brink, like LA, having to pay teachers with unsourced money, dealing with the homeless, the two tiered union contracts, a failed state legislature, PGE being mis-managed,... Stall speed in California is about 1.5%, we will sudden stop before the typical region of the USA.
We suffer a deadly, unkwon corona virus for some time, but otherwise we are having the regularly scheduled recession, it is bailout time. It is generation bailout time, presidential bailout time, Senate/House bailout time; all our spectrum wants to get a sample during this period. We been through this, a been there done that, and it is costly.
I think our neighborhood size is 150,000 and each neighborhood will need five hundred beds for six weeks, but the neighborhoods will be split in phases as the virus spread. Total beds needed should remain at five hundred, and existing beds handle inter phase bulge. My total need is five hundred beds extra over ten weeks to accommodate 60 dead.. I see the total costs at a billion. The population here is a half million. We are an ag town with a major transport artery running through.
My numbers will be well within ball park, I know a whole lot about people, laces and things and how they congregate around here. Phase two will be the worst, but it hits in central Fresno, about a third of us. But the burbs have sharp boundaries, the inter phase delay is another three weeks.
Total medical costs are dropping everywhere because much fewer people are dying during the lock down. Fewer accidents, fewer heart attacks, less flu. We suffer surge pricing on certain medical specialties, like dealing with an unsolved corona virus.
Otherwise, I fully expected quite a few shut downs in California, mostly union strikes and chaotic battles over commercial property taxes. Many town already on the brink, like LA, having to pay teachers with unsourced money, dealing with the homeless, the two tiered union contracts, a failed state legislature, PGE being mis-managed,... Stall speed in California is about 1.5%, we will sudden stop before the typical region of the USA.
We suffer a deadly, unkwon corona virus for some time, but otherwise we are having the regularly scheduled recession, it is bailout time. It is generation bailout time, presidential bailout time, Senate/House bailout time; all our spectrum wants to get a sample during this period. We been through this, a been there done that, and it is costly.
The monopsony tax dollar
The Fed is a central bank, it has power because Congress names only one currency as tax useable. But, at equilibrium, the Fed's power only extends to those who pay taxes, it is demand limited because of the tax structure.
If I run a network, I am consolidating tax costs, requiting internal transactions to avoid taxes. It is a spiral, the Fed has to resort to seigniorage taxes. Congress, itself, skews the tax network such that the demand for dollar to pay taxes is quite irregular across the economy, and the lesser wealthy folks on the street hit with such high transaction costs, they end up on alternative food stamp, housing vouchers, black market dollar. They are, in essence, priced out of banking due to monopsony costs distorted by Congress.
Our central bank, at the moment, is bailing out the payers of taxes, which is not the average cash user. This is a structural point that AOC and the Failed Staters cannot understand, or would like to deny. I think we can prove this all revolves back to the inefficiency of House/Senate relations, it is the long term problem of the USA coming back,like that rare virus, to bite us in the butt.. The Civil War type problem, absent the mass violence.
If I run a network, I am consolidating tax costs, requiting internal transactions to avoid taxes. It is a spiral, the Fed has to resort to seigniorage taxes. Congress, itself, skews the tax network such that the demand for dollar to pay taxes is quite irregular across the economy, and the lesser wealthy folks on the street hit with such high transaction costs, they end up on alternative food stamp, housing vouchers, black market dollar. They are, in essence, priced out of banking due to monopsony costs distorted by Congress.
Our central bank, at the moment, is bailing out the payers of taxes, which is not the average cash user. This is a structural point that AOC and the Failed Staters cannot understand, or would like to deny. I think we can prove this all revolves back to the inefficiency of House/Senate relations, it is the long term problem of the USA coming back,like that rare virus, to bite us in the butt.. The Civil War type problem, absent the mass violence.
Leading to a public pension bailout
Few of the state pension systems can survive this long term bear market. Boomer will surge to their retirements. A boomer teacher of age 60 would be better off not betting on the end of the recession given California's long path toward public sector recovery. The pensions funds cannot fund their sudden retirement in a declining stock market, it will cause spiral.
Sunday, March 29, 2020
fewer people die during recessions
Eternal justice
Though Cromwell had died in 1658, the king had him exhumed, his corpse put in chains and tried for treason.Cromwell was found guilty, had a weak defense.
My agent at the corner market
Suffered an egg shortage which, like tiolet paper, got caught up in the sudden stop. So he went hunting and found a case of them, 36 eggs per rack, six racks in a case. He had no way to partial them out, couldn't yet find a empty carton solution to package item. So he sells them in the normal shopping bags, tells the customer to not shake, hold upright, do not jerk arm when walking. I walked three blocks without cracking a bag of ten eggs. First time I ever bough eight ten at a time, eggs were always relatively prime to five.
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Lebanon has a mark to market problem
Lebanon: coronavirus is showing corrupt elites the scale of the damage they have caused
The elites have eaten the market, its gone. In sandbox that is the S/L going to market share zero. Citizens will need to run on the Euro while government is moribund.
Lebanon is a country that has received little attention during the Covid-19 crisis. As of Monday, the country officially had over 250 coronavirus cases, with four confirmed fatalities. People in Beirut estimate the real number of infections to be four to five times that number, and the government’s decision to deploy the army to prevent people from violating quarantine rules reinforces that view.
For now, the disease still appears to be under control. However, the fear is that if things were to get out of hand, the public health system would be overwhelmed. What makes Lebanon more vulnerable than many other places is that the country is going through a major economic crisis. The state is bankrupt and its ability to withstand a long lockdown, or to import material to address the health emergency, is limited.
The shutdown, which began in mid-March and involves people remaining at home while most commerce is suspended, will also have severe consequences for a county that cannot afford to be idle. In the past five months, Lebanon’s economy has been in free fall, with banks reacting by severely limiting withdrawals or transfers abroad. This has forced many businesses to close, leaving tens of thousands unemployed.
The downward slide began last October, when demonstrations took place against the corruption of the political class and increasingly stringent economic measures. As protests continued, banks introduced de facto capital controls in the realisation that the angry mood had undermined the system the state had set up to finance its ballooning public debt. Many refer to it as a Ponzi scheme that has come to an end. Banks had offered interest rates on deposits that were much higher than the global average, paying these off by attracting new deposits into the system. With confidence gone, the banks feared account holders would rush to withdraw money, leading to the banking system’s collapse.
Foreign assistance to Lebanon has been conditional upon the introduction of reforms. Yet the country’s political class has resisted this, as it would reduce their share of the rents they are extracting from the state. Indeed, Hezbollah was one of the parties initially opposed to a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. The party feared that this would cut into its own revenues, while also weakening the political class it has propped up to solidify its position in the country.
Maybe
$9,000,000,000,000: Former Fed Strategist Now Expects Fed's Balance Sheet To Double This Year
The bailout of 2009 was a doubling of debt, the charts would expect a repeat.
But that is death knell for retail banking, a huge market share loss by the Fed, and they know it. That balance sheet implies a huge gap with the IOER low, and that gap is a tax being passed to retail banking, some 200 billion, an additional 1.5% fee from what the monopsony fee might be today.
The Fed cannot give up the retail sector, that is its anchor, that is the source of government taxes. If that banking sector is gone, government pricing is out the window, chaos, chaos, chaos.
Under my plan, the tax dollar comes with a government fee, averages 2%, it is mandated, and direct inflation will vary about that by half a point, typically. But this is a 15 year contract of independence from Congress, and the Fed can easily double its market share. The fee is paid by all users of the tax dollars, especially government agencies, and they pay the fee. The New Fed being profitless remains powerless, it simply runs the matching S/L pit. The other sources of 'inflation' are mainly distortions, like inflation adjustments and market restrictions from government.
So inflation evolves to one anchor, the regular cost of government blunders, which we predict to be a third of a generations debt. But after the Nixon Shock, we saw 15% inflation of a short period, and inflation was not totally tamed until the mid 1990s.
The key to anchoring inflation is to quit lying about government, it blunders, bet on it, literally. Then we avoid the massive congestion as caused by the Nixon overnighters.
Under my plan, the tax dollar comes with a government fee, averages 2%, it is mandated, and direct inflation will vary about that by half a point, typically. But this is a 15 year contract of independence from Congress, and the Fed can easily double its market share. The fee is paid by all users of the tax dollars, especially government agencies, and they pay the fee. The New Fed being profitless remains powerless, it simply runs the matching S/L pit. The other sources of 'inflation' are mainly distortions, like inflation adjustments and market restrictions from government.
So inflation evolves to one anchor, the regular cost of government blunders, which we predict to be a third of a generations debt. But after the Nixon Shock, we saw 15% inflation of a short period, and inflation was not totally tamed until the mid 1990s.
The key to anchoring inflation is to quit lying about government, it blunders, bet on it, literally. Then we avoid the massive congestion as caused by the Nixon overnighters.
They spent the whole campaign acting affirmatively
Tucker Carlson Insists Biden ‘Will Not Be The Democratic Nominee.’ Here’s Who He Predicts Will Assume The Mantle
Now they end up with these two old geezers. Waddya gonna do? Trump is certainly nutty, we have no doubt, but we might just hold out nose and bear through it, same as that little Bush kid.
A good mass shooting tops off a pamdemic
Texas AG says gun stores are essential, should remain open amid pandemic
I noticed they banned abortions due to the virus. ho said piling on was a Dem thing, the Gov of Mass Shootings himself, Abbot is always rooting for a good shoot out.
Helicopters in the news
Beckworth has them in his new Fed model. Part 3 is his auto-fiscal response, the helicopter leaving droplets in our accounts, if need be.
My plan has these as opportunistic defaults, the machine erases some chunk of Treasuries and the direct inflation needs be handled in the separate, and asynchronous reserve to holdings balance. The banking system is in charge of transmitting direct inflation.
My plan is not conditional, my plan says the Fed is contracted to default set amount over the contract period, 15 years. In return the Fed is free of Congress and only manages the reserves to holdings balance.
My plan is based on history, we default, do it regularly, lets setup a pit rather than have sudden congestion.
But otherwise, with a change of name, both plans effect the same result, defaults.
My plan has these as opportunistic defaults, the machine erases some chunk of Treasuries and the direct inflation needs be handled in the separate, and asynchronous reserve to holdings balance. The banking system is in charge of transmitting direct inflation.
My plan is not conditional, my plan says the Fed is contracted to default set amount over the contract period, 15 years. In return the Fed is free of Congress and only manages the reserves to holdings balance.
My plan is based on history, we default, do it regularly, lets setup a pit rather than have sudden congestion.
But otherwise, with a change of name, both plans effect the same result, defaults.
Queen Trump of Hearts
But that wasn’t the only time Trump indicated Friday that he factors personal things that have nothing to do with the coronavirus outbreak into certain decisions.From the cartoon version of Alice and Wonderland.
I notice this, as did a zillion shrinks around the world. Trump should say to himself,"Self, being nutty is OK, just avoid it in public'.
Theory
Congestion management is equivalent to removing redundancies in flow. It involves lossy compression. Example: If customers are mostly buying four cans of soda, why not force the ad hoc customers to conform and sell in cases of four?
Redundancy minimization is equivalent to entropy maximizing. The second part says entropy maximizing flows have one form of solution, any other correct solution can be adibaticaly warp into the one abstract solution. The proof is via contradiction, showing the redundancy when two solutions are 'relatively prime'. Relatively prime means they fail the adiabatic warping test. They do not scale.
There is one prime generator.
Bounded error, is an assumption, but accepted by observation. Translated it means waiting in line too long exceeds the error bound at equilibrium. With the virus running around we can see a evolutionary desire to avoid unstructured queues, congestion. Bounded error every where holds, it is up to the application to show this true. Nash has to hold on this one. Coase shows p in the need for auto traded pits at congestion points.
The unique part is the calculations, we are actually doing the model in real time. The digital transformation follows the theory, we are cutting and pasting from the math labs to the digital trading pits. The math labs only work with the complete sequences, a marketing skill, actually. The quants, us, are simply social security number which do not like to wait in line, but that is exactly what our smart cards do, find the shortest line. The pits we deploy and somewhat like a Hufman encoder, but not always. Coinbase, Amazon, Walmart, grocery stores all play the digitization game, drop transaction costs to trivial, find the congestion points, make a pit. All sandbox.
Redundancy minimization is equivalent to entropy maximizing. The second part says entropy maximizing flows have one form of solution, any other correct solution can be adibaticaly warp into the one abstract solution. The proof is via contradiction, showing the redundancy when two solutions are 'relatively prime'. Relatively prime means they fail the adiabatic warping test. They do not scale.
There is one prime generator.
Bounded error, is an assumption, but accepted by observation. Translated it means waiting in line too long exceeds the error bound at equilibrium. With the virus running around we can see a evolutionary desire to avoid unstructured queues, congestion. Bounded error every where holds, it is up to the application to show this true. Nash has to hold on this one. Coase shows p in the need for auto traded pits at congestion points.
The unique part is the calculations, we are actually doing the model in real time. The digital transformation follows the theory, we are cutting and pasting from the math labs to the digital trading pits. The math labs only work with the complete sequences, a marketing skill, actually. The quants, us, are simply social security number which do not like to wait in line, but that is exactly what our smart cards do, find the shortest line. The pits we deploy and somewhat like a Hufman encoder, but not always. Coinbase, Amazon, Walmart, grocery stores all play the digitization game, drop transaction costs to trivial, find the congestion points, make a pit. All sandbox.
What is the ultimate cure, what are the long term consequences?
The first outcome, everyone will learn to self treat flu systems and be prepared with a bed, a phone, a thermometer, hot chicken soup and the medical authorities will send over a medical cocktail and test you.
The second point, watch for immunity lapses in the neighborhood, how long hhas it been and where is the virus now, initiate public flu shot campaigns, include a covid immunity booster.
Finally, clean, disinfect work places, keep the mask handy, depending on your route,
A third of us already do this.
That ratio, immunity time to incubation time is the key ratio, and the uncertainty is with immunity time, this is not something we want to catch two times a season. There has been one unverified, and uncertain re-infection, and docs need to check that out pretty quick and inform us.
The second point, watch for immunity lapses in the neighborhood, how long hhas it been and where is the virus now, initiate public flu shot campaigns, include a covid immunity booster.
Finally, clean, disinfect work places, keep the mask handy, depending on your route,
A third of us already do this.
That ratio, immunity time to incubation time is the key ratio, and the uncertainty is with immunity time, this is not something we want to catch two times a season. There has been one unverified, and uncertain re-infection, and docs need to check that out pretty quick and inform us.
Virus vs Anti-body part 3
I am modeling the battle between virus and anti-body as a standard sandbox automated S/L operator. My queue sizes for both parties is determined by immunity eriods vs remission periods, and is about 40/1.
OK, two color channel packing says we can divide the bits in the channel according to Log2 of that ratio. I further presume we can identify afflicted clusters with eight bit accuracy, and we see the immunity events occupy some five bits of that channel. Give the pit boss one bit, there is not much left for the incubation periods, which are two weeks.
The two bits of that channel will, on occasion, identify no neighborhood is afflicted, the virus is in route. There is the boundary condition, there is never a moment when all of the neighborhoods are afflicted, that stops flow and the ecosystem goes to zero for everyone. The two bits allocated to virus events and the five to anit-body events cannot both be zero.
The pit boss are the travelers, the people and goods that make up civilization. Us, and we have tools, mainly we can shorten the incubation times, the period before anti-bodies react. Shorter period of sickness, longer periods of health. The model is very intuitive, recommending what we all know, kill the sickness in an individual as fast as possible, the result trivial.
But for sandboxers is a very good demonstration of what a S/L in two color mode looks like. It is, really the same problem, depositors and borrowers swiping a card always keeping the balance. The other point is the ratio, that should, via log, translate into rank of the two, savers and borrowers, and this ratio, 40/t is quite an extreme, depositors and borrowers will much more evenly split the channel. This extreme case demonstrates the development of oribitals, the virus need be on the move and often leave opportunities untouched.
Shannon applies but where is the gaussian noise? It is in the gaussian arrivals at equilibrium, the systems will self-shape to obey Shannon's condition, within some bound. And this is a congestion problem,but it is difficult to identify the structured queues in civilization, we can get their abstract shape, but tracking clusters and how they queue much more difficult matching problem. There is a huge skew with places like NYC and LA, each having idiosyncratic blocks to the virus.
OK, two color channel packing says we can divide the bits in the channel according to Log2 of that ratio. I further presume we can identify afflicted clusters with eight bit accuracy, and we see the immunity events occupy some five bits of that channel. Give the pit boss one bit, there is not much left for the incubation periods, which are two weeks.
The two bits of that channel will, on occasion, identify no neighborhood is afflicted, the virus is in route. There is the boundary condition, there is never a moment when all of the neighborhoods are afflicted, that stops flow and the ecosystem goes to zero for everyone. The two bits allocated to virus events and the five to anit-body events cannot both be zero.
The pit boss are the travelers, the people and goods that make up civilization. Us, and we have tools, mainly we can shorten the incubation times, the period before anti-bodies react. Shorter period of sickness, longer periods of health. The model is very intuitive, recommending what we all know, kill the sickness in an individual as fast as possible, the result trivial.
But for sandboxers is a very good demonstration of what a S/L in two color mode looks like. It is, really the same problem, depositors and borrowers swiping a card always keeping the balance. The other point is the ratio, that should, via log, translate into rank of the two, savers and borrowers, and this ratio, 40/t is quite an extreme, depositors and borrowers will much more evenly split the channel. This extreme case demonstrates the development of oribitals, the virus need be on the move and often leave opportunities untouched.
Shannon applies but where is the gaussian noise? It is in the gaussian arrivals at equilibrium, the systems will self-shape to obey Shannon's condition, within some bound. And this is a congestion problem,but it is difficult to identify the structured queues in civilization, we can get their abstract shape, but tracking clusters and how they queue much more difficult matching problem. There is a huge skew with places like NYC and LA, each having idiosyncratic blocks to the virus.
The military is another place the virus spreads
Trump Orders Former Troops Back to Active Duty to Fight Virus
Order a mass of non-immune troops into a virus hot spot and they just tramsmit the disease everywhere.
Order a mass of non-immune troops into a virus hot spot and they just tramsmit the disease everywhere.
Friday, March 27, 2020
The best therapy for aging boomers
Coronavirus reveals just how little compassion we have for older people
Boomers are fucked. The therapy was yesterday, yesterday about 40 years ago when Boomers fell for the 'This time is different' fraud.
Millennials are fucked if they do not figure out that their kids will also force a default in 40 years. The kids of millennials are fucked until their parents figure this out and warn them.
We need fewer economists telling us 'This time is different'. It never is, it is always the same set of economists creating the same fraud each generation.
We need fewer economists telling us 'This time is different'. It never is, it is always the same set of economists creating the same fraud each generation.
The ten year rate
Our favorite economists will tell us this is brand new, require the magic of Godot. Not so, finance had been predicting the next down turn for a few years now. Prediction of negative rates soon from the bond market. All indicators in Congress is that we just passed our regularly scheduled bailout.
We have a shitload of pundits, from both sides, claiming only Godot can help us, Horse manure, both sides got us into this periodic mess, mainly our ignorant senators. The last thing we need is a bunch of Kanosians triggering the recession of 2028, then lying about it.
Balance sheet
This is looking like the equivalent of a 200 billion regressive tax. Keynesians conveniently forget that, but the retail end of banking has been rolling up, it cannot afford these fees.
Very bad news
Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive
A spate of mysterious second-time infections is calling into question the accuracy of COVID-19 diagnostic tools even as China prepares to lift quarantine measures to allow residents to leave the epicenter of its outbreak next month. It's also raising concerns of a possible second wave of cases.This is a big whoops and would mean seasonal immunity may be a false hope. We need this verified ASAP.
From March 18-22, the Chinese city of Wuhan reported no new cases of the virus through domestic transmission — that is, infection passed on from one person to another. The achievement was seen as a turning point in efforts to contain the virus, which has infected more than 80,000 people in China. Wuhan was particularly hard-hit, with more than half of all confirmed cases in the country.
But some Wuhan residents who had tested positive earlier and then recovered from the disease are testing positive for the virus a second time. Based on data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for further observation after their discharge from hospitals, about 5%-10% of patients pronounced "recovered" have tested positive again.
Thursday, March 26, 2020
Virus vs anti-body part two
This is the model of anti-bodies selling liquidity to viruses, but anti-bodies outnumber viruses by 40/1 based on immune time vs remission time. The assumption is that all parties have seen the virus, there are no cases where neither the virus has not been introduced.
Immune travelers can go anywhere. But virus travelers cannot go to an neighborhood with an outbreak, the traveler becomes lost in the statistics. In other words, the virus travels very fast, adding new virus arrivals is small potatoes compared to any possible re-infection going on already.
The virus pays a high cost for liquidity. In other words, an infected neighborhood has to send out quite a few travelers to find neighborhoods where the immunity is just wearing off.
We look at the Walmart checkout stand and note that there is instances where one customer and no clerk is queued up. Clerks will have fermion statistics, there is never a moment of two clerks in a queue on a structured queue, a generator.. There will be queue gaps.
If a clerk is waiting and no customer, the redundancy principle is violated. Clerks are occupying more bandwidth than an entropy maximizing system should, it is not adiabatic and an arbitrage is hanging.
Virus has a lot of movement with little staying power.
This model predicts strategies for living with the battle. Monitor communities that have not had outbreak in some time, they are a synchronous arbitrage waiting to happen. Shorten the remission times, the the right mix of symptom treatment, and immune therapy. We lose the battle rarely. But the war never stops, like Vietnam War.
My home town Fresno is not equilibriated. But the phase two we are facing is as if we were a neighborhood where the immunity seems to be wearing off. But at equlibrium there would be 30 other neighborhoods with active immunity.
Phase two in Fresno is mainly central Fresno, the pedestrians and camps. Then is phase three, it hits the upper crust surburbanites north of us. Central Fresno will get its 40 deaths over the next four weeks. The Northerners another 20. Households in Fresno should be prepared for home medicine, a thermometer, chicken soup, Tylenol, and the clinic phone number. If you feel ill, go home, take temperature, call the clinic, do not visit. Drink fluids arrange for a test. Be prepared fopr sudden transport to emergency on signs of repiratory difficulty.
Immune travelers can go anywhere. But virus travelers cannot go to an neighborhood with an outbreak, the traveler becomes lost in the statistics. In other words, the virus travels very fast, adding new virus arrivals is small potatoes compared to any possible re-infection going on already.
The virus pays a high cost for liquidity. In other words, an infected neighborhood has to send out quite a few travelers to find neighborhoods where the immunity is just wearing off.
We look at the Walmart checkout stand and note that there is instances where one customer and no clerk is queued up. Clerks will have fermion statistics, there is never a moment of two clerks in a queue on a structured queue, a generator.. There will be queue gaps.
If a clerk is waiting and no customer, the redundancy principle is violated. Clerks are occupying more bandwidth than an entropy maximizing system should, it is not adiabatic and an arbitrage is hanging.
Virus has a lot of movement with little staying power.
This model predicts strategies for living with the battle. Monitor communities that have not had outbreak in some time, they are a synchronous arbitrage waiting to happen. Shorten the remission times, the the right mix of symptom treatment, and immune therapy. We lose the battle rarely. But the war never stops, like Vietnam War.
My home town Fresno is not equilibriated. But the phase two we are facing is as if we were a neighborhood where the immunity seems to be wearing off. But at equlibrium there would be 30 other neighborhoods with active immunity.
Phase two in Fresno is mainly central Fresno, the pedestrians and camps. Then is phase three, it hits the upper crust surburbanites north of us. Central Fresno will get its 40 deaths over the next four weeks. The Northerners another 20. Households in Fresno should be prepared for home medicine, a thermometer, chicken soup, Tylenol, and the clinic phone number. If you feel ill, go home, take temperature, call the clinic, do not visit. Drink fluids arrange for a test. Be prepared fopr sudden transport to emergency on signs of repiratory difficulty.
Numbers
Positive
65,512
Negative
367,143
Pending
Hospitalized
6,322
Death
936
Total test results
432,655
From the Covid tracking database, reported by state. These are still a bit unstable, these are not yet random tests. NYC is the main diver of data on this.
They show about 1/5 of us have the disease already. That group is immune for the season, we assume. Death rates ate 1.5%, but the sample is biased toward the sick. 1.5% is below the original 2%, that number will reduce in days as ad hoc diagnostic trials are ongoing worldwide with complete collaboration.
This chart tells me that immunity will grow fast, we may not be at peak, but the peak of this thing will not drag out longer than eight weeks. Watch NYC.
Phase two in my hometown
US virus deaths may top 80,000 despite confinement: study
In phase one, in Fresno, we have 16, infected by four travelers. This town should have 200 fatalities in phase two according to these stats quoted, so far. That would be ten times the rate for a severe flue.
Phase two is about two weeks away, but in the last two weeks we have learned quite a bit on symptom treatment and testing. The optimistic view, mine, is that the local fatality rate will be closer to 40--80. I expect this to be two to four times worse than the last flu since 1990.
Yes the hospital rooms will be full, patients in the corridor. But home treatment will expand and fill the void. In two weeks we will have a currently recommended cocktail for symptoms. I am not counting on the mild symptoms, the one that just need a day off and rest then remission. How many are there? We dunno yet. In Fresno we have 200 test kits, mainly used for those showing symptoms. There is no random testing and we may already be in phase two.
Yes the hospital rooms will be full, patients in the corridor. But home treatment will expand and fill the void. In two weeks we will have a currently recommended cocktail for symptoms. I am not counting on the mild symptoms, the one that just need a day off and rest then remission. How many are there? We dunno yet. In Fresno we have 200 test kits, mainly used for those showing symptoms. There is no random testing and we may already be in phase two.
This chart
The region thus generating immunity much longer than infections; the outbreak will move on for the year.
Cases going through remission
NYC Death Toll Spikes 110% in 36 Hours; Cuomo Blasts ‘Terrible’ Fed Plan as Cases Soar to 32K
These are 'infected' patients, they show the symptoms and test positive. I do believe, so they are really going through remission, potentially fatal. But in two weeks these are mostly 32k persons with a seasonal immunity at least (keeping fingers crossed). Basically 32k people who can go back to work.
There remains a category of unknown incubators showing little symptoms. The hope is that these folks get it, rest a day or two and have anti-bodies, but we do not have that data, yet. The goal would be to test folks and give them immune boosters before symptoms, force an early, mild remission.
There remains a category of unknown incubators showing little symptoms. The hope is that these folks get it, rest a day or two and have anti-bodies, but we do not have that data, yet. The goal would be to test folks and give them immune boosters before symptoms, force an early, mild remission.
But we need further evidence on the robustness of the anti-body, the finger crossed part. Doubling time on death rates still does not bother me, yet. It is barely two weeks.
Systematic steps to using sandbox theory
This is a repeat. The idea is simple.
Find the aggregate flow under study and assume transaction costs tend to a very small trivial amount over the networked flows. You are lowering fixed inventory costs until you can see underflow and overflow in inventory. Then on identifying the congestion point, install an automated trading pit, a two color dynamic inventory packing model. Walmart and Amazon live by this motto.
As Zero Hedge says, we have to mark to market. In abstract tree theory (sandbox by another name), we call that 'keeping the Tree Trunk round'. The market foces the structured queue, basket sizes get properly set along the value chains. Chart analysts unable to find breaking points.
Economically this is Hayek( generator triangles) , Krugman (agglomeration theory), Fama ( information processor ), Huffman/Shannon (structured queues); then Coase (transaction costs trivial) and Nash (bounder error is known). And a long list of mathematicians.
Find the aggregate flow under study and assume transaction costs tend to a very small trivial amount over the networked flows. You are lowering fixed inventory costs until you can see underflow and overflow in inventory. Then on identifying the congestion point, install an automated trading pit, a two color dynamic inventory packing model. Walmart and Amazon live by this motto.
As Zero Hedge says, we have to mark to market. In abstract tree theory (sandbox by another name), we call that 'keeping the Tree Trunk round'. The market foces the structured queue, basket sizes get properly set along the value chains. Chart analysts unable to find breaking points.
Economically this is Hayek( generator triangles) , Krugman (agglomeration theory), Fama ( information processor ), Huffman/Shannon (structured queues); then Coase (transaction costs trivial) and Nash (bounder error is known). And a long list of mathematicians.
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Sounds like one of those affirmative action appointees
Biden’s Likely VP Short List: Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar
Kind of like checking off one of the talking points. Biden will be doing the sneak behind, pinching boob, but it entertains him. Go with Kamala, I know Joe been looking her way. Besides Kamala is good at the affirmative action jobs, her entire career is a string of them. Talk to Willie, she got melon.
My lifestyle needs changing
I skipped phase one in Fresno, just travelers. But in phase two I will be in a cesspool of virus. My life style need an antiseptic spray, the entire interior of the house, once a week. Great house, well built but a carpenters delight, all wood everywhere, hard to get the floating virus out.
Then I have the chihuahua problem. Sniffing pee spots is her life passion, I have a hard time keeping her indoors, it breaks her little heart. So, she can hang in the front yard, chained. (Chihuahuas lose control). Then she needs more frequent bathing, and I need some bathing of any kind.
A google translate for fun:
Me salté la fase uno en Fresno, solo viajeros. Pero en la fase dos estaré en un pozo negro de virus. Mi estilo de vida necesita un spray antiséptico, todo el interior de la casa, una vez por semana. Gran casa, bien construida pero una delicia de carpinteros, toda madera en todas partes, difÃcil de sacar el virus flotante.
Entonces tengo el problema de chihuahua. Olfatear puntos de orina es la pasión de su vida, me cuesta mantenerla adentro, le rompe el corazón. Entonces, ella puede colgar en el patio delantero, encadenada. (Los chihuahuas pierden el control). Entonces ella necesita un baño más frecuente, y yo necesito un baño de cualquier tipo.
Then I have the chihuahua problem. Sniffing pee spots is her life passion, I have a hard time keeping her indoors, it breaks her little heart. So, she can hang in the front yard, chained. (Chihuahuas lose control). Then she needs more frequent bathing, and I need some bathing of any kind.
A google translate for fun:
Me salté la fase uno en Fresno, solo viajeros. Pero en la fase dos estaré en un pozo negro de virus. Mi estilo de vida necesita un spray antiséptico, todo el interior de la casa, una vez por semana. Gran casa, bien construida pero una delicia de carpinteros, toda madera en todas partes, difÃcil de sacar el virus flotante.
Entonces tengo el problema de chihuahua. Olfatear puntos de orina es la pasión de su vida, me cuesta mantenerla adentro, le rompe el corazón. Entonces, ella puede colgar en el patio delantero, encadenada. (Los chihuahuas pierden el control). Entonces ella necesita un baño más frecuente, y yo necesito un baño de cualquier tipo.
Wear a mask to the office
- Do not share your work space or cubicle with others, talk over the wall. No meetings.
- Wipe you space clean with disinfectant twice a day, drive to work.
- Work irregular hours if you firm can do that, then the possibility of congested workers is reduced.
- All electronic, do not pass paper.
- Feel just a bit tired? Go home early, take a temperature. Buy testing kits.
- Employers should write off the costs of employee testing kits, and employers should by some antiseptic temperature readers.
- Pack a lunch or utilize antiseptic methods around the vending machines. Wipe the thing then open, in that order.
- Nightly cleaning includes disinfecting.
Adding another ten trillion in debt next year
We have a 2 trillion dollar start and will be seeing two trillion dollar deficits for several years.
Our ten year rate on Treasuries will barely hold to 1% with the additional; interest payments. The retail banking sector is a goner, it is all moving to shadow banking, most of it online. This is a huge opportunity to gain market share for the sandbox. It is also a great opportunity for central banks to adopt sandbox, by the way. It certainly looks like a regime change for central banking, and they are all quite aware of sandbox theory. We are still hopeful the New Fed can keep Congress at bay.
The CBO trajectory will shoot up like a rocket. Millennials looking at that will shit. Boomers will run for the hills. Last moth should have been to moment to prepare for a regime change, but my computer was broke and I got Luddite fever. Plus, I had to scramble up the property tax or the unions would be on my ass, so I was planning to take virus month off work anyway, if you call this work.
Our ten year rate on Treasuries will barely hold to 1% with the additional; interest payments. The retail banking sector is a goner, it is all moving to shadow banking, most of it online. This is a huge opportunity to gain market share for the sandbox. It is also a great opportunity for central banks to adopt sandbox, by the way. It certainly looks like a regime change for central banking, and they are all quite aware of sandbox theory. We are still hopeful the New Fed can keep Congress at bay.
The CBO trajectory will shoot up like a rocket. Millennials looking at that will shit. Boomers will run for the hills. Last moth should have been to moment to prepare for a regime change, but my computer was broke and I got Luddite fever. Plus, I had to scramble up the property tax or the unions would be on my ass, so I was planning to take virus month off work anyway, if you call this work.
Simply shift the borrowing back to the taxpayers
PHILADELPHIA — Governors are pleading for more financial help from Congress as unemployment claims surge to near-unprecedented levels this month, leaving states incapable of covering the mountainous costs.The central bank will be delivering siegniorage fees in the form of ATM fees on cash, higher consumer rates or higher bank fees.
The full problem won’t become clear until the Department of Labor releases national unemployment data on Thursday. But eye-popping numbers have already trickled out as state after state has imposed sweeping orders shutting down non-essential businesses.
The anecdotal evidence thus far has been grim: The state of Florida received 21,000 applications for unemployment on Monday and 18,000 on Sunday, far exceeding typical daily averages of between 250 and 1,000. New Jersey saw at least 15,000 applications in one day last week, a record high that caused its filing system to crash. And California has averaged 106,000 unemployment claims daily — nearly 750,000 in a week, or 3.8 percent of the entire state workforce.
Two economic analyses released Tuesday estimated that well over 3 million people filed for unemployment in the last week — by one estimate, five times as many as the worst week of the Great Recession.
If the national tally due out Thursday confirms the dire projections, it would foretell a new period of deep economic turmoil in America. For state governments, already facing enormous costs associated with fighting the spread of the coronavirus and coping with major losses in revenue, the burden will be too great to navigate on their own.
The borrowing needed to cover the shortfall will be paid for, by the states themselves. Except we have piling on, politicians are jumping on the bandwagon to get their unsustainable progams bailedout, and the future cost to statesw ill be greatyer than expected. Much of the crisis is due to the 9 trillion in debt we piled on since 2008, and we are paying 2.5% rate on that 'Krugman debt" while the current ten year is at .85%. So, we are, in a clear sense, bailing out the 2008 bail out. It is beginning to look like a roll over crisis.
Hometown
‘Ominous times’ ahead: 18 coronavirus cases in Fresno County. 200 tests currently available
Fresno did an early lock down and with only 18 cases the emergency rooms are not spreading the disease. The key is to treat this at home unless respiratory distress happens. Obamacare is not helping. Obamacare has been driving the sick to emergency rooms, the lock down stopped that absurd practice and saved lives.
Five new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases were reported in Fresno County on Tuesday, bringing the county’s total up to 18.We don't get visitors except along the freeway. Hence, watch this county as it enters phase two and see if statistics improve. I suspect cases much larger as the homeless camps are not tested many of them migrate. If this were the flu we would already have about four deaths and hundreds of cases.
“The clouds are gathering and we are in for some ominous times,” said Rais Vohra, interim health officer of the Fresno County Department of Public Health, during a 4 p.m. conference. “I don’t want to beat around the bush about that.”
Six cases were described as travel-related, two were contracted person-to-person, and 10 are under investigation, officials said.
David Pomaville, director of the Fresno County Department of Public Health, said the county had about 200 coronavirus test kits available on Tuesday, and that “as we use them, they are being replenished.” Pomaville said tests will be more available in the “upcoming weeks.”
Vohra said Fresno County has gone from containment to mitigation, and that more cases are expected. He said it’s unclear when coronavirus cases will peak in Fresno County, but that the county and central San Joaquin Valley appear to be “several days to perhaps a week behind” patterns seen in more populated metropolitan areas like the Bay Area.
Fresno did an early lock down and with only 18 cases the emergency rooms are not spreading the disease. The key is to treat this at home unless respiratory distress happens. Obamacare is not helping. Obamacare has been driving the sick to emergency rooms, the lock down stopped that absurd practice and saved lives.
Fredo in the news
Cuomo: Stimulus Deal "Terrible" - Would Leave NY With "Drop In The Bucket"
Big state vs small state. Cuomo is he champion of California and New York on state subsidies.
The entire stimulus was a too big to fail bailout, an attack on the Main Street citizens. State socialism done by the National Review commie rat, Republicans.
Writing off bogus military contracts
Modly: U.S. Navy Might Not Buy More Ford-Class Carriers
The boldface is mine as I was the first defense analyst to show the UAV problem with complex systems. They cannot deploy these systems against swarms of cheap UAVs, they have no real defense.
McCain and Inhofe are responsible for the losses, they both mis-managed defense and got us into this pickle.
“I don’t know if we’re going to buy any more of that type [Ford-class]," Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly told DefAeroReport. “We’re certainly thinking about possible other classes. What are we going to learn on these four that’s going to inform what we do next? But we have some time now, we have up until 2026, 2027 before we have to make a really firm decision."
At $12-13 billion each, the Ford-class carriers are the most expensive warships ever built. The Navy is actively looking to trim billions out of its budget in order to fund smaller, more distributed surface warfare assets, including unmanned / optionally-manned surface combatants. Many defense analysts caution that large, high-value assets - like supercarriers - are potentially more vulnerable to new ballistic missile and hypersonic projectile threats.
The Pentagon has already committed to buy four hulls in the Ford series - the future USS Gerald R. Ford, USS John F. Kennedy, USS Enterprise and USS Dorris Miller. The last two hulls were purchased in a block-buy in order to reduce cost. USS Ford has been delivered, and construction on USS Kennedy and USS Enterprise is under way.
The boldface is mine as I was the first defense analyst to show the UAV problem with complex systems. They cannot deploy these systems against swarms of cheap UAVs, they have no real defense.
McCain and Inhofe are responsible for the losses, they both mis-managed defense and got us into this pickle.
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Exactly backwards
‘Cacophony of coughing’: Inside NYC’s virus-besieged ERs
Avoid emergency rooms that is where it spreads.
Sandbox theory and virus flow
We consider a population of immune and non-immune. Immunity to the is is maintained by occasional exposure to it. As immunity is in excess, there are not enough non-immune carriers to keep immunity boosted. If the non-immune are in excess, many get sick, go into remission and gain immunity.
The model naturally wants variance to match, the second moment, the aggregate of immune and non-immune must be a stable match (adiabatic change only). The system allows chaos for intermixing, the virus does not spread without back pressure.
a
Treat this like a two color S/L system. The virus/nti-bodied make a pit boss. It slightly alters the ratio of cured to infected. The pit bosses are at minimum variance when they react with the maximum second derivative. They are always taking advantage of arbitrage moments, points where the infected and cured might be ill matched.
When power spectrums are ill matched
Give the infected a shorter power spectrum than the cured. One can be infected for weo weeks then becomes cured for 12 weeks, for example. The anti-body/virus pairs cannot find a distribution match, we get motion. Virus constantly surrounded and barely escaping. Like a mutating flu or recurring cold. Time to get cured is two weeks, as deadly as it is. Time of immunity at least 12 weeks.
The model naturally wants variance to match, the second moment, the aggregate of immune and non-immune must be a stable match (adiabatic change only). The system allows chaos for intermixing, the virus does not spread without back pressure.
a
Treat this like a two color S/L system. The virus/nti-bodied make a pit boss. It slightly alters the ratio of cured to infected. The pit bosses are at minimum variance when they react with the maximum second derivative. They are always taking advantage of arbitrage moments, points where the infected and cured might be ill matched.
When power spectrums are ill matched
Give the infected a shorter power spectrum than the cured. One can be infected for weo weeks then becomes cured for 12 weeks, for example. The anti-body/virus pairs cannot find a distribution match, we get motion. Virus constantly surrounded and barely escaping. Like a mutating flu or recurring cold. Time to get cured is two weeks, as deadly as it is. Time of immunity at least 12 weeks.
Good news on virus mutation
It is not happening, we are basically seeing the same genetic make up as in China, it is not mutating as it spreads.
This means two things. If we develop an immune response, the same response is needed next time we get it, the body is not confused.
Second, we can target a specific vaccine, not a generic immune booster like we do with the flue which mutates. There is some unverified news on plasma tranfer, from a patient win remission, and it seemed to work indicating anti-body resistance is there.
This correlates with the lack of news on re-infection, but data set is still small, give this a day or two. The fix bandwidth channel has an error bound consistent with the 'speed of virus' assumed constant, translating tht into a virus power limit, nothing is known better than a half point of the channel size, measured variance of the two color packing. I think we find the most active point for the virus, that point where is can live with sufficient robustness among the population.
This means two things. If we develop an immune response, the same response is needed next time we get it, the body is not confused.
Second, we can target a specific vaccine, not a generic immune booster like we do with the flue which mutates. There is some unverified news on plasma tranfer, from a patient win remission, and it seemed to work indicating anti-body resistance is there.
This correlates with the lack of news on re-infection, but data set is still small, give this a day or two. The fix bandwidth channel has an error bound consistent with the 'speed of virus' assumed constant, translating tht into a virus power limit, nothing is known better than a half point of the channel size, measured variance of the two color packing. I think we find the most active point for the virus, that point where is can live with sufficient robustness among the population.
Social distancing at the corner market
I go in with my own bag, avoid others and fill my bag and show it to my shopkeeper on the way out. He enters the total into a spiral bound, paper block chain at some time later. Once in a while I throw three hundred at him, he has gloves. The only changed I see are the gloves, mainly because masks are short.
The handful of cases seen so fart seem to be of known origin, from outside. If we are hit severely it will be the homeless and squatters crammed into houses this spring. That would be in the next two weeks, this bears monitoring my hometown is one valley away from the west coast. We make a very good median situation and would expect a second, larger wave; a rebound as it disperses among the congested poor.
The handful of cases seen so fart seem to be of known origin, from outside. If we are hit severely it will be the homeless and squatters crammed into houses this spring. That would be in the next two weeks, this bears monitoring my hometown is one valley away from the west coast. We make a very good median situation and would expect a second, larger wave; a rebound as it disperses among the congested poor.
Flatten the curve, they say
Spread out the infection rate so hospitals are not overwhelmed.
If we have a longer lasting auto immune response we can flatten the curve enough that a vaccine is not absolutely essential. 12 weeks and no news of double infection means a possible off-the-shelf immune booster gets 20 weeks. Then we suppress the cause of death which mostly seems to be respiratory stress. The big accelerator is a good autoimmune response, no re-infections on a yearly basis makes this a seasonal flu like problem a severe but liveable condition.
If we have a longer lasting auto immune response we can flatten the curve enough that a vaccine is not absolutely essential. 12 weeks and no news of double infection means a possible off-the-shelf immune booster gets 20 weeks. Then we suppress the cause of death which mostly seems to be respiratory stress. The big accelerator is a good autoimmune response, no re-infections on a yearly basis makes this a seasonal flu like problem a severe but liveable condition.
The suburban home industry is a long term winner
The detached suburban ranch house is a great place for inventory and hiding from the virus. No crowds, and the auto industry wins from garage to garage the worker need not meet anyone in transit. My tiny portfolio has both residential and commercial, I am taking the bit hit on the one and the gain on the other, and will just as cash poor as usual.
Also, buy into the disinfectant business, and I have another great buy opportunity but I cannot reveal it until my own insider transaction is complete.
Also, buy into the disinfectant business, and I have another great buy opportunity but I cannot reveal it until my own insider transaction is complete.
Waiting to hear re-infection rates
I hope to keep waiting. This is the one pending issue, how long is our autoimmune system good for. If we had double infections, it would be blaring headline news, I am not hearing it. What it means is that the 28% of New Yorkers who have it, also have an immunity, for at least 12 weeks.
Keep a good measure on alpha
Rabobank: Many Are Questioning The Point Of Having A Market If The Fed Is Backstopping Everything
With accurate money three variable determine the price of a company, savings, loans, and default risk. If those are accurate, the stock market is not needed. A good AI bot can look at the history of transactions and make a good guess at value.
In fact, the stock market was likely invented in response to bad central banking. The idea of the market was to minimize the effect of money volatility and compare alpha directly. But the market is caught in the permanent arbitrage that is the primary dealer system. So finance has to add a couple of tiny Greek letters to correct alpha. The extra letters an be considered spectral sidelobes from an foul sampling money system, a money system with varying market share due to inaccurate pricing.
Bad news on the virus
The virus survived 17 days on the surfaces of the cruise ship, that is a long time.
On related news, New York is showing a 28% infection rater, the city is way to packed to escape the virus.
News is news and this is bad news, a bad result. Emergency rooms were not likely disinfected, group after group[ passing through a virus swamp. We have a severe disinfectant problem, social distancing just got more complicated. Building will need disinfecting on a regular basis, and random environment testing will be needed, another ongoing expense.
On related news, New York is showing a 28% infection rater, the city is way to packed to escape the virus.
News is news and this is bad news, a bad result. Emergency rooms were not likely disinfected, group after group[ passing through a virus swamp. We have a severe disinfectant problem, social distancing just got more complicated. Building will need disinfecting on a regular basis, and random environment testing will be needed, another ongoing expense.
Monday, March 23, 2020
My corner grocer is showing bare shelves
He cannot make deliveries himself until he get masks, he cannot get them. He has to order them, in larger bulk with more inventory risk. This is a contraction, dropping rank, a requant. My corner gorcer will have to change product mix, seek greater economies of scale but lose variety.
The information resources aligned against the virus are unprecedented
The original doctor on the spot opening a dialogue within days. Transmitting detailed patient histories in abundance in real time. Online trial results worldwide. Citizen's being informed via WebMD and other links. The ability for alternative deliveries when stuck at home. A big chunk to two generations of Moore's law are attacking the data in the epidemic, never been done in run time, we can out race this thing. Instant education of employer staff on avoidance methods. And ou ability to sequence DNA and math it with known antigens.
Fundamental principle Homo economicus
Thou shall not wait in line. Being second is OK.
I never made the evolutionary connection, if you get stuck in congested places you die of contagious disease. It makes sense, but in some odd way that nature did not intend. Likely the opposite, evolution developed the contagious disease to thin out the congestions already occurring. Nature is entropy maximizing, runs a sparse ship.
LA Homeless
Crammed into the streets swamped with the virus and little ability for home triage. If middle class old folks are most of the deaths, at a 2% rate, then homeless folks will be dying at 3-4%. This virus like congested people.
I never made the evolutionary connection, if you get stuck in congested places you die of contagious disease. It makes sense, but in some odd way that nature did not intend. Likely the opposite, evolution developed the contagious disease to thin out the congestions already occurring. Nature is entropy maximizing, runs a sparse ship.
LA Homeless
Crammed into the streets swamped with the virus and little ability for home triage. If middle class old folks are most of the deaths, at a 2% rate, then homeless folks will be dying at 3-4%. This virus like congested people.
Correct, minus the flagwaving
President Trump said Monday that his administration would work to allow local economies to “cautiously resume” activities at the appropriate time amid the coronavirus outbreak, adding that the United States “wasn’t built to be shut down.”
“Our public health experts, who are terrific, are studying the variation and the disease across the country, and we will be using data to recommend new protocols to allow local economies to cautiously resume their activity at the appropriate time,” Trump told reporters in the White House briefing room Monday evening.
We forget, our knowledge was doubling right along with the infection rate. We got the data, we can find patterns that solve the social distancing problem, like today, now. Some part of the economy can be safely resumed.
But large, crowded events out out. That is still a sudden stop of recessionary level. A home test would be great right now, develop that. Teach us how to use an oxygen bag at home. Intelligent people will find the contagion safe paths. Make the best cocktail suppressant widely available. We can live with this without the vaccine for some time. We are likely to get an immunity booster of partial effectiveness, making immunity a 20 week affair. We have an inventory of vaccines that can disable part of this virus.
It is still socialism
‘This is bulls---’: Bitterness takes over Senate as lawmakers clash on rescue
We have a repeating process, Republicans demanding bailout of the large corporations, especially the primary dealers. There is no lipstick for this pig, big business is permanently on welfare.
Tom Cotton is clueless, just another Tea party welfare bum.
Democrats piling on:
Democrats piling on:
Stimulus Talks "Are Stalled Out" After House Democrats Unveil $2.5 Trillion Counterproposal
The Dem senators are in line to get their people Keynesianized also, although their people are locked down, and so are the corporations, by the way. This piling up is leading to a default scenario.
Some facts:
We have too bi to fail problem because dumbshits like Tom Cotton cannot manage the federal budget.
Second, the defaults were on the way in any event due to 40 years of senatorial mis-management.
Third, we will get piling on by the three pubic sector states, the retail bankers cannot afford to pay the subsequent fees generated.
Better idea:
Larger corporations need find their own short term funding and use the money to develop social distancing mechanisms and contagion prevention on the job sites. Hire a sanitation consultant to help. It is entirely reasonable to get critical work done if the distancing mechanism is not too expensive, an achievable goal. Handle products with gloves and warehousing will be safe. Truckers can still do their job, no passengers allowed; and so on.
The virus seems to mostly kill with respiration failure when the virus over comes resistance. So everyone watch for mild fever and lethargy, and then go home to bed, notify the doctor, and be prepared for onset of respiration distress. The bad news I am not hearing is no news about re-infection rates. No one seems alarmed and we should have seen serious re-infection over the last 12 weeks. I take the 12 weeks of immunity, add in the developing cocktails for symptoms, and social distancing done right; especially home triage. Keep the public informed about what to do with the virus at home, give them a flu like remedy. Keep the masks flowing, educate us about hand washing and glove use on the job.
Some facts:
We have too bi to fail problem because dumbshits like Tom Cotton cannot manage the federal budget.
Second, the defaults were on the way in any event due to 40 years of senatorial mis-management.
Third, we will get piling on by the three pubic sector states, the retail bankers cannot afford to pay the subsequent fees generated.
Better idea:
Larger corporations need find their own short term funding and use the money to develop social distancing mechanisms and contagion prevention on the job sites. Hire a sanitation consultant to help. It is entirely reasonable to get critical work done if the distancing mechanism is not too expensive, an achievable goal. Handle products with gloves and warehousing will be safe. Truckers can still do their job, no passengers allowed; and so on.
The virus seems to mostly kill with respiration failure when the virus over comes resistance. So everyone watch for mild fever and lethargy, and then go home to bed, notify the doctor, and be prepared for onset of respiration distress. The bad news I am not hearing is no news about re-infection rates. No one seems alarmed and we should have seen serious re-infection over the last 12 weeks. I take the 12 weeks of immunity, add in the developing cocktails for symptoms, and social distancing done right; especially home triage. Keep the public informed about what to do with the virus at home, give them a flu like remedy. Keep the masks flowing, educate us about hand washing and glove use on the job.
Why Phi in finance?
Phi is the most irrational number.
In any estimate of the ratio of buyers to sellers, a repeatability in that estimate is a bettable arbitrage when transaction costs are zero. All consumated trades should be equally innoative, suprising to the market.
Market participants in a two sided trade will find that market liquidity is highest when the ratio is Phi, which is unobtainable, by the way. Chart makers when noticing the upper and lower bounds on a trend are measuring the ability of market making trades to keep market risk as an irrational, an unbettable. There is a point when just enough excess of buyers and sellers will always extinguish the arbitrage, the optimal congestion point/
In any estimate of the ratio of buyers to sellers, a repeatability in that estimate is a bettable arbitrage when transaction costs are zero. All consumated trades should be equally innoative, suprising to the market.
Market participants in a two sided trade will find that market liquidity is highest when the ratio is Phi, which is unobtainable, by the way. Chart makers when noticing the upper and lower bounds on a trend are measuring the ability of market making trades to keep market risk as an irrational, an unbettable. There is a point when just enough excess of buyers and sellers will always extinguish the arbitrage, the optimal congestion point/
Bitcoin down
$6500 or thereabouts. What happened? No FX exchange?
My theory was that bitcoin was a good FX exchange machine as it included insiders. But the relative difference between currencies and viruses is way off scale, no sense in running an FX trade today.
My theory was that bitcoin was a good FX exchange machine as it included insiders. But the relative difference between currencies and viruses is way off scale, no sense in running an FX trade today.
Worse case outcome
The doctors will be able to supress symptoms and boost immunity and get you over the virus in a week, at home like the flu. Absolutely worse outcome is that your immunity is only good for s6 weeks. But your employer can boost detection and preventions an keep you away for 12 weeks. This is a workable economy. Employers of mass need to get daily temperatures, make sure masks are worn, demand frequent hand washing. And expense the three days of lost timer every 12 weeks.
Easing the lockdown
Factory and warehousing and farming and trucking can all continue with proper social distance and masks. Frequent hand washing, take temp daily at the factory.
Avoid mass transit, classrooms and emergency rooms; the three anchors of the government planners.
Goh ome, go to bed when you have a temperature.
Avoid mass transit, classrooms and emergency rooms; the three anchors of the government planners.
Goh ome, go to bed when you have a temperature.
The key to crab grass control
Apply a germinator stopper at least twice a year and kill all germination. Wait one month and replant rye as needed. Also apply the regular weed killer in between. In fact, apply any chemical which does not kill rye grass.
Chop the edges well, kill all growth in the cracks and against the house except desired plants. And continue replanting rye when needed, take friendly kills.
Chop the edges well, kill all growth in the cracks and against the house except desired plants. And continue replanting rye when needed, take friendly kills.
It is not cash, it is a tax payer liability
Kashkari Says Fed Has "Infinite" Amount Of Cash: "We Create It Electronically"
And as the central bank widens its scope, the retail bankers begin roilling up their sector. Fees go way up for the middle class, rate spreads become important and restrict consumer banking. The Fed is a tax agent, do not kid yourself.
The Treasury is currently paying 2.5% = interest expense/debt (including social security). That is a high tax when growth was predicted to be 2% or slightly below.
The only expected outcome is that the virus chasers defeat this thing, mostly, in one, maybe two quarters. Anything else then the assumption the central bank can do anything is gone.
Best bet, educate the public, keep them out of emergency rooms, produce masks and gloves, and the virus hunters will at least drive thins thing to the level of a sever flu, and tests are showing this is possible. Like this, from WebMD::
March 18, 2020 -- The flu drug favipiravir is "clearly effective" in treating coronavirus patients, Chinese researchers say.
Their trial of favipiravir included 340 coronavirus patients patients in China. Those who received the drug recovered quicker and showed greater lungimprovement than those who didn't get the drug, the U.K.'s Daily Mail reported.
It's believed that favipiravir blocks the coronavirus from replicating in the body.
Kasshkari is doing the cheer leading, the expectation shaping. But at this point this is nutty, as is the stimulus. Focus on one thing, refining social distance, wear masks and gloves, watch your temperature, stay home if sick or otherwise. Trials are three days, shipping time across the globe; this is a very accurate, very responsive set of scientists.
Should the Fed buy munis?
I think that LA County is large enough to have its own Fed account, direct. So, I think the question is moot, government agencies need cash flow account management, including continuing access o money market funds. But then, that pre-supposes the small/large state divide problem is reduced. The Swamp has a sever congestion problem, has had onbe since the founding, the small vs large state dispersion.
But, in this case, sure buy munis, buy some large corporate debt.
More horsemanure
U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before coronavirus outbreak
This one expert would not have made a difference, the doctor on the spot, now dead, did the job faster and more widespread via the internet. Our fundamental flaw, we our destroying the household functions, in this case, home triage. Folks should have known it was time for Mom's recipe, hot chicken soup, go to bed and everyone stay away. We did not know Mom's recipe, we were told home triage was a racist thing.
This is all ex post, side effects which we could not predict ten years ago, except the medical staff should have known; but all they saw was a money stream. (cross infections are a well know problem for hospitals).
So the charge about deliberately lying on the emergency room congestion problem results in an involuntary manslaughter charge, economists failing simple assumptions. But I can point to many of us who noticed the emergency room congestion problem from the start.
The better system requires households to have some high school education and read WebMD. Require that and federal medical costs drop rather sharply. In my household that is my job, the three of us designated me as the interpreter of WebMD, but I can go a bit deeper. Then our trips to the emergency room are rare.
The American disease expert, a medical epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency, left her post in July.In comparison, Obamacare has been telling us to run off to crowded emergency rooms when we get sick.
This one expert would not have made a difference, the doctor on the spot, now dead, did the job faster and more widespread via the internet. Our fundamental flaw, we our destroying the household functions, in this case, home triage. Folks should have known it was time for Mom's recipe, hot chicken soup, go to bed and everyone stay away. We did not know Mom's recipe, we were told home triage was a racist thing.
This is all ex post, side effects which we could not predict ten years ago, except the medical staff should have known; but all they saw was a money stream. (cross infections are a well know problem for hospitals).
So the charge about deliberately lying on the emergency room congestion problem results in an involuntary manslaughter charge, economists failing simple assumptions. But I can point to many of us who noticed the emergency room congestion problem from the start.
The better system requires households to have some high school education and read WebMD. Require that and federal medical costs drop rather sharply. In my household that is my job, the three of us designated me as the interpreter of WebMD, but I can go a bit deeper. Then our trips to the emergency room are rare.
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