Mass transit had the virus spread everywhere almost within a day. One cough and it hangs in the subway car an hours, while thousands of people get on and off. The same spreaders, for three days, riding the transit to work.
LA and the bay area are still predominantly spread out suburban car cultures. In Fresno, car culture rules especially now and spread from central Fresno to the northern suburbs should be two weeks slower than in New York. So out curve is a bit flattened already, the maximum number of extra hospital beds per capita we need much lower than NYC.
NYC is entering phase three, we might say. We want to look at deaths per test per number testing positive. If we get an accurate stat, we want to see if it falls or levels during phase three. If mass transit is spreading the virus then mass transit will also block the virus as more anti-bodies ride the train and absorb the excess virus.
NYC is a classic case, the subway cars are really fixed bandwidth and at equilibrium, the immune and the infected will split the bandwidth. The virus looking for arbitrage opportuniies, but the opportunities close off in two weeks as immunity builds. Then the anti-bodies keep that route shut for the season. We can see the train become a very light gray and the two colors, black and white, pack the channel.
NYC is entering phase three, we might say. We want to look at deaths per test per number testing positive. If we get an accurate stat, we want to see if it falls or levels during phase three. If mass transit is spreading the virus then mass transit will also block the virus as more anti-bodies ride the train and absorb the excess virus.
NYC is a classic case, the subway cars are really fixed bandwidth and at equilibrium, the immune and the infected will split the bandwidth. The virus looking for arbitrage opportuniies, but the opportunities close off in two weeks as immunity builds. Then the anti-bodies keep that route shut for the season. We can see the train become a very light gray and the two colors, black and white, pack the channel.
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