Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Sandbox theory and virus flow

We consider a population of immune and non-immune.  Immunity to the is is maintained by occasional exposure to it. As immunity is in excess, there are not enough non-immune carriers to keep immunity boosted. If the non-immune are in excess, many get sick, go into remission and gain immunity.

The model naturally wants variance to match, the second moment, the aggregate of immune and non-immune must be a stable match (adiabatic change only).  The system allows chaos for intermixing, the virus does not spread without back pressure.
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Treat this like a two color S/L system. The virus/nti-bodied make   a pit boss. It slightly alters the ratio of cured to infected.  The pit bosses are at minimum variance when they react with the maximum second derivative. They are always taking advantage of arbitrage moments, points where the infected and cured might be ill matched.


When power spectrums are ill matched

Give the infected a shorter power spectrum than the cured. One can be infected for weo weeks then becomes cured for 12 weeks, for example. The anti-body/virus pairs cannot find a distribution match, we get motion. Virus constantly surrounded and barely escaping. Like a mutating flu or recurring cold.  Time to get cured is two weeks, as deadly as it is. Time of immunity at least 12 weeks.

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