Look recently

Note the difference between the two lines increase substantially before covid, then it actually holds that deviation.  We are mostly equally uncertain about covid. The government increase in seigniorage taxes happened prior to covid.

 Government hasn't really handed much liquidity to the regulated bankers at all.

What we are seeing are the regularly scheduled bailouts.  The covid costs seem accurately spread via the Fed tax. In other words, the banks know and the Fed agrees on what this covid thing is about and both expect the federales to do automatic bailouts.

So, retail bank restructuring had already been well in place, mainly the roll up of retail banks.  That contraction continues unaffected by covid. But is is a headwind for recovery, we have already abandoned a previous position. We were recoloring the beach ball already.

In January I was fretting about my puny passive real estate investment would be a mess during the Prop 13 battle. The squeeze was on out here, everywhere. So there is no quick recovery for California, we have the long slog of rebuilding the public sector system, yet again.