Friday, May 29, 2020

You have the simple arithmetic wrong

If an immediate adjustment to an unexpected supply shock that would return a complex economy back to the neighborhood of equilibrium is not even remotely likely, then the only way to ensure against a cumulative decline of aggregate output and employment is to prevent total spending from declining. And if total spending is kept from declining in the face of a decline in total output due to a supply shock, then it follows, as a matter of simple arithmetic, that the prices at which the reduced output will be sold are going to be correspondingly higher than they would have been had output not fallen.
If we keep spending up; then people move, unnecessarily.

The idle economy with equal spending results in long lines and people move. It is a simply matter of congestion.

Lavington is a dunce because he thinks queues are perfectly compressible. The Nash equilibrium is always the same, when you are stuck at third place you eventually skip that queue. It is not a partial equilibrium except in flat earth, but that is an illusion.  It is a matter of survival.

The is assumption that N scales appropriately. Lavington starts by trying to meet the Lucas condition, but lapses back to flat earth with his arithmetic error. A connected economy has discrete paths, by definition, they cannot be merged with prices.  He is a dunce, sorry, and anyone who believes this nonsense is generally fooled by flat earth.

Glassner is dead wrong in his paper:

I read his abstract and he stats with inter temporal optimization which we do not do. 

Inter temporal optimization is the flat earth illusion, we  avoid long lings. Lines at the firm generally go with time, but we are not timing, we are calling ahead to see if it is crowded. The correct equilibrium is that we scale, we move from one location that is sufficiently independent from the other that we can find short lines.


Flat earthers have moved billions of people around unnecessarily using all sorts of means from crowds to bombs. The illusion seems to be associated with religion, a kind of Godot affliction. 
The engineer who designs my refrigerator is flat earth and I have to replace it every few years because its can won't kick.

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