I estimate to be a three quarter recession under the assumption that the geneticists are as smart as I think they are.
The collaterals are the conditionals imposed, mostly by large institutions, corporates and government, but not out of balance with the real costs. A one time cost. These immunology models with response teams, along with an increasingly likely seasonal immunity, if not longer, along with the array of immunity boosters developed does the trick. Some businesses hit harder, the restaurants. Many of them reconfigure for drive through and on line pre-order along with reserved, but separated tables, especially patios. Their environments will specialize in virus safety, well ventilated up and out, high walled and screened table, family separate dining rooms.
There will be a total domination of delivery trucks for some time, get used to that. I dunno about work environments, I never liked them anyway. And a whole bunch more, unseen by me. They are not all single sided changes, there is observable bad and good in any even/odd priors hat.
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