What I finally settled on as an indicator was the 7-day average death rate, using this data.Kling looking at the measure of fear.
If we start with 3-day death rates then we are fairly contracted, our items per basker has shrunk while we hide in our homes. Then we know a bit more and go with 7-day rates.
Time to shop a basket of goods is a reasonable first order estimate. We cut back our basket until the loss aversion is not perceptible. Just like those physicists cooling down the hydrogen atom to measure wobble.
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