The one where I admit, surprise, oil hit 42 and stayed there. Then I would say, exception that proves the rule, we get inflation spikes, or some crap.
But oil is stuck in the 40s, and keeps reverting. The dollar is back to a stable precovid range. This tells me that deflation is stronger than I would expect. I would have thought some bounce back, all I see is the ten year Treasury jumped to .8%. This bodes ill for tax collection is the problem, and we got one helleva tax scramble coming up. This is also where the small states and a lot of isolated districts in California need their liquidity transfer. The repeatable revenue sharing.
The deflation is built in, there is no government deficit that makes inflation. Deflation is the monopoly tax dollar losing market share, gamma to the alternative liquidity markets. NGDP is not rising because traders are dodging the Fed tax on collateral.
The Best Stimulus
Negotiate a deal to get the Fed out of the tax collecting business. Then I have one other stimulating idea on revenue sharing and devaluation.
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