Then came the second wave

 Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate theEffects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output

Abstract 

This paper describes key methods that the Congressional Budget Office used to estimate the effects on economic output of the laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. To quantify the short-term effects that those laws had on output by means of their influence on overall demand for goods and services, CBO used delayed and reduced estimates of the output multiplier to reflect the effects of social distancing. The agency combined estimates of the effects on overall demand with those on the supply of labor in the economy, when applicable, to examine the short-term effects of enhanced unemployment compensation, the Paycheck Protection Program and related provisions, the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facilities, and other provisions. To estimate the longer-term effects of pandemic-related legislation on output, CBO used its Solow-type growth model to quantify the effect of higher federal deficits on national saving and private investment.

The paper from the CBO which has to measure the impact of current amp law.  They have to find coefficients for the Black Swan, hard to do. The background is all covid, they are trying to do an economic analysis of an ongoing pandemic. Then they are attempting to expand a single covid axis, onto a growth model that assumes Euler efficiency.

The post pandemic economy is all about when we have fair odds on defeating covid. I interpret that to mean, a variety of off the shelf antibody inhalers and improved second generation vaccines. We have to measure pharma response, it is a single caused, single axis Black Swan. I target Q1 of 2021 as a point where the first off the shelf inhaler is announced.