Try the Lucas criteria there, Kevin

So it’s not really Trump’s fault. Like nearly every economic indicator these days, the trade deficit has to be taken with a grain of salt thanks to government shutdowns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Other nations were hit with the covid just as badly.  You have to explain why the USA is different.

Here is a clue.  The global currency rose in value during the Black Swan:

One can see that the currency does this each recession. The currency rises because the US banking system has the capacity to absorb unused money. But it doesn't last, Fed taxes soon makes foreign currency whole again. 

Fed taxes are the penalty the Fed charges when the US dollar is over valued. It acts like a congestion fee. The better solution is a devaluation tax.  Skip the intermediate, whenever the dollar value surges, Treasury can literally create money, a single sided accounting system up to some contractual limits. That solves the deflation problem.

The method Krugman currently recommends is a massive regressive bank tax on the middle class.  Bad idea. Krugman needs to expand his Overton.