Thursday, January 28, 2021

A clue for our author

Investing Shouldn't Feel Like a Trip to Vegas

Don't put your savings on the line trying to guess what the herd will do next, as we saw with GameStop this week.

Start here/

Modigliani–Miller theorem

Consider two firms which are identical except for their financial structures. The first (Firm U) is unlevered: that is, it is financed by equity only. The other (Firm L) is levered: it is financed partly by equity, and partly by debt. The Modigliani–Miller theorem states that the value of the two firms is the same.

If his theory is true then one of two things must be true. The stock market is a bogus unnecessary distraction, or two, our central bank is a distortionary nightmare.  In this case, the author i stuck, there is no good advice except gold.

Or the theory is false, and our author needs another basis to justify her job. She needs, then, to follow Buffet and the value investors and see how they work.

More importantly, where are the economists who have resolved the contradiction? If Fama can hold the contradiction in his own views, then he should return the Nobel. I doubt Fama rally believes the theory. In fact the theory is likely wrong as it does not use the productivity norm, it does not handle the congestion problem correctly.  We are stuck, ignore the market and force your self to engage in value investment.

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