Sunday, January 31, 2021

Junker fallacy, what is it?

  Junker Fallacy.

This is a law of economics: if nobody else wants that extra food, then something – either a price or an interest rate – has to adjust until someone wants it.

This can be greatly simplified. It is the assumption that we can make change, arbitrarily small, in any market trade.  We always have sufficient liquidity, eventually. This is also the ergodic assumption,  traders always search the whole deal space.

We don't do this, we have hard bounds, or sufficiently hard that transaction costs are not worth it. 

But, I digress. What we find as that pundits assume the junker fallacy then violate the assumption, so much they confuse themselves. We end up in a regulatory maize as the pundits demand laws that we slow down and search harder.  They are trying to work a statistical identity backwards.

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