Saturday, January 30, 2021

The ten year back to 1.1%

There is no Princeton fake magic to this. 

The yen is a carry currency because the Japanese run a FX insurance business.  The insurance cost is set to recover the losses from rolling over the mammoth debt in their next six years. All the foolishness about debt having negative cost is delusional.

The natural cost for Swamp imbalance is about 2.5%, and it is easily computed via the continuing cycles. Add another 1.5% in Fed flat taxes and you get right back to the natural cost of government wobble.

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