He is not allowed to notice, but I have no restriction, the recessions are in phase with presidential regime change. That means there is no kanosian stimulus effect noticeable in the series, the null hypothesis will rule on any effort to locate positive multipliers.
It also means that predicting a near term recession is a no brainer as long a near term means a year or so, or any mini dip in between. It is bound to happen soon, as Jerry would put it.
But..but... that long period since the crash, that is without precedence. Something is truly different, at least slightly different. Almost like we almost got it figured out, but not quite.
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