Specifically, the U.S. budget deficit is forecast to widen to "only" $897 billion over the 12 months through September, from $779 billion last year. This means that contrary to the CBO's last forecast in April, the U.S. budget deficit will top $1 trillion in fiscal 2022. The CBO estimated in April that the budget deficit for the entire fiscal year would increase to $804 billion, before widening to $981 billion in fiscal 2019 and topping $1 trillion in 2020.“That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes -- most notably a decrease in emergency spending,” the CBO said, somewhat optimistically especially since the economy is forecast to slow over the next three years with the growth rate easing to 2.3% in 2019, 1.7% next year, and 1.6% in 2021, the CBO forecasted; growth was an estimated 3.1% last year.
Bold face mine.
What is neglected is the spread. We will see about 10 million boomers dump there share of debt service onto the millennials next year. The CBO cannot count that. The CBO projections are nice Euler curves going up and away. But the measure curves had been going straight up, an there is every reason to believe they will go straighter up than usual during the down turn.
Tell Pocahontas that Gavin is not taking any chances by sending his wealth taxes back to DC, suggest Gavin and Liz have a conversation before the issue becomes public. We are in the peculiar situation of our collective fate depends on Gavin getting a clue, and the real risk is Gavin flounders and goes teenager dating.
The last time we did this, it all depended on Obama, Brown, and DC repubs agreeing on a split of the income taxes and sequester, that was the deal that got us out of the mess. We don't have a Jerry Brown, no Obama, we have Pocahontas, the Sacramento venezuelans and Gavin. The odds are not looking good, can we get Jerry to phone in some friendly advice?
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