Bitcoin up to four grand

Settle on bitcoin until the central banks figure stuff out.

And, the stock market still looks bearish, having a hard time breaking even. This looks more and more like a reversion to bailouts.  There is still retrenchment in brick and mortar retail.

This economy cannot pull out of the down turn by Q3 and simply drop back in recession Q2 of 2020. We don't move that fast, autos cannot recover in one quarter, nor housing especially in winter.  Germany cannot pull out in time, France will still be in rebellion, and Italy remains on the ropes.

So, our best option is low growth and very moderate expansion for another five years. The Fed has potential growth at 1.8% or so. The treasury ten year should be around 2.3%,. Hence, the one year needs to drop to 1.5% at a minimum.

If the midwest floods turn ugly, we will never make it and go deep blue. Other known unknowns include a Turkish collapse, a Brazil collapse, an Australian collapse. Each of those could cost a quarter point in global growth.  Germany going deep into red could swamp the boat.  And, of course, the most dangerous of them all? California the Narco State.  Our government still about 5% of GDP short in taxes, and they are appealing for a federal bailout of teachers.  That is a problem we should have taken care of last time, but LA is desperate, they are still expecting tens of thousands of poor immigrants. Each influx raises the pension  costs as they raise the number of state employees.