Friday, March 29, 2019

The merchant and NBA owner

The NBA owner makes  trade when his hidden benefit is greater than chance.  Chance is large with NBA layer.  The merchants trades goods for money when the hidden gain exceeds the currency bankers posted market maker boundary.

That bir error, observable, represents the current best guess as to whether the customer will wait in line of walk by, randomly, as it has done in the past.  That is a reference point for the merchant. Consider the case of a busy street, all equal merchants, and an equal pedestrian flow.  The bankers market function tells the merchant what is the neutral desire of each pedestrian to turn left, into her store. A frame of reference, the current setting of S/L is known, to within a bit error.

The NBA trader has the same dilemma. He knows the typical variation in NBA player stats, they are published. That is chance, that is his frame of reference. In both cases, a restricted channel produces structured queue, a value added chain.  At each point of the value chain, there is no better reordering that beats bit error, when at equilibrium. The hologram effect is in the induced and implied  queue structures. The velocity equation is the merchant or NBA owner replacing bit error with customer or player flow; and costing it out in units of currency uncertainty. They can count customers and multiply by a propensity to spend coefficient, and be kind of accurate.

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