Think of the boomers taking a lease on the Texas S/L bailout from 1980s. We are still renting that bailout machine, and millennials have no idea what that was all about. Nor do millennials want to deal with the hassle of expensing that bailout every year to infinity.
That cost was buried by Congress due to the Senate and the right to coin. The right to coin, I figure, owes about a third of that for aiding and abetting. The rest of that cycle cost is getting dumped on Congress. Congress gets so much ice they can devote to past blunders of the Senate.
We will assign causality in the repeated past. The CB problem is not all of this, by a long shot. The CB problem can be expensed directly as inflation (losses Wienerized over time).
Notice a pattern?
In the past, when deficits suddenly rise, we are already in a recession. Jobs lost is the definition of ble bar, and jobs lost is tax income gone and capital gains falling for G, yields a suddenly increasing deficit. We look like a mild recession, and 15 years from now beans counters might price in a light blue period via repricing backwards. They will say our unemployment numbers were useless because boomer retirement stampedes went un-noticed. On a volatility basis, the boomer stampedes had all the characteristics of unexpected, and unmeasured, unemployment.
This looks like secular stagnation, the long spectral moment crossing zero. An opportunity to see it, and know it and trade it all at once. The economists will finally say,'Yea, OK, but we can t least improve it'.
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