Thursday, September 26, 2019

Why is there no inflation?

Adam Ozimek asks the question:
Trade uncertainty is important, and is holding back the economy, but it cannot explain why inflation has remained below target and the economic recovery remains incomplete after so long.
Try talking to an economist, Adam, the economist is supposed to have an answer. 

The mathematician will tell you that an accurate double entry accounting system is price neutral over the complete cycle. The issue is what is the complete cycle? Well, about 85% of the spectrum is probably one generation and their periodic eight year recessions. So, we should be headed for a hundred years or so of a half point deflation.

Good luck, talk to an economist about howto do fiscal policy in a deflation. The mathematician will tell you to either reform all the inflation adjustments and fixed price contracts, or simply do a Nixon style default.  No mathematician will tell you that this time is different.

No comments: