Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Yes, we will have deflation

Flat earthers everywhere use the same canard, more government debt yields more inflation.  They disagree on the zero points, some say more inflation, some say little inflation.

It will be deflation, as sound economics has always predicted.

It is in the chart. After each recession we get more disinflation.  Anyone can see this, why flat earthers think the world begins and ends on recession boundaries is beyond me. Note also that any period of sudden price rises results in another recession. This is 100% true in the charts.

How much deflation? Well oil prices are back to 1995 levels. That will work its way into the economy, and so fare the CPI has been declining on a monthly basis.

 Do you see the period of inflation? Right after Nixon reset the monetary system, he left about 3 trillion stranded in the economy, untied to any opposing asset. I would expect a deflation of about 1% per year for twenty  ten years. We will have a partial default.

No, more stimulus does not helps, that just shuts down more retail banking, and causes more deflation. Governments real interest rates should remain about 2%, a little higher. It will be collecting lass tax for each unit of debt.

Expect this to be ignored by the flat earthers as they go on their austerity rampage.

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