Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Faster than light

The bean counters could not possibly keep up.

We have a requant.  Unfortunately we are blackswanned across the covid axis and we need to crack that shell and measure what's left of the economy. Like this:
Study: Coughs, Sneezes That Sound Disgusting Fill Bystanders With Fear
Note, however, the apparent growth in volatility, larger zig and zag. Much of the requant was well predicted. We are doing the generational overlap and we have not planned for any associated partial default. We have a low bar, we need do this a bit better than Nixon, not so difficult. The benefit is a much better Fed, a great deal more independence, more automated.

Chart from Mish.

Dollar crash 'virtually inevitable' over massive debt... 

That has a big conditional. Can we do this a bit better than Nixon. The dollar may remain stable if the new central bank is more accurate, and Congress uses the default liquidity intelligently. That is a higher probability than we think with modern exchange technology.

But, there s still a mortal case of Post Nixon Shock Syndrome, a mass hysteria across bankers and some finance.

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