Wednesday, June 17, 2020

The real profit from QE is a Federal VAT tax


Fed receipts
This is why TARP was profitable.  TARP was paid for with a Fed tax.

Seigniorage was 3% of cash flow over the period. It look like 80 billion a year for four year.

It is a tax collected by the Fed from the regulated banks.

Id this tax fair?
Doesn't matter, it is authorized by the Constitution under right to coin. The better question is this tax regressive?  Yes, it is like a federal sales tax.

Mis named?

No, it is clearly implied in the Constitution. Congress has both the right to tax and the right to coin. It is a tax. It is ignored by flat earthers, but we would expect that.  Call it a tax, it is legally defined as a tax, it is collected by a government agency under instructions from the legislature.

The tax in only 3% of federal revenue, then, but it will be closer to 5% of federal revenue today.  Note, the rise in the tax is associated with the change in regime in the Swamp. In the end, the Keynesians will resort to a regressive sales tax, that is the meaning. But so will conservatives, and many libertarians resort to a regressive sales tax. When they all agree the tax is likely to be hidden or covered up.

The tax effect is to suppress consumer demand via the consumer credit channel, leaving disinflation in most consumer indexes. The wide acceptance of this tax demonstrates that liquidity is conserved. All three groups are pledged to hit us with something like a 2% federal VAT over the next few years. Looks like the deal has passed Congress.

Mosler was flat earth:

Early in her new book, The Deficit Myth, economist Stephanie Kelton describes the “Copernican moment” that led her to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). As a young economist, Kelton read Warren Mosler’s book Soft Currency Economics, which posits that currency-issuing governments need not finance their spending by taxing and borrowing.

Central banks collect taxes, the taxes are called siegniorage.  Kelton simply wants Congress to implement a VAT tax, Congress will not do so directly. The Constitution allows the central bank to collect the tax. Since Congress will issue thids VAT tax as needed, the New Fed contract simply specifies how much VAT Congress wants collected over a longer period, it stabilizes the tax by default VAT in advance. Ther idea is that an algorithm can opportunistically estime the best time ti collect the tax, save Congress the effort of cheating.

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