Saturday, October 10, 2020

Hundreds of billions per month

 Krugman's new bid in a stimulus.

Currently Treasury has 1.7 trillion in cash. They borrowed this at net .7% including the nearly 1% in seigniorage fees. Normally Treasury carries a new interest cost of about 2.1% a year. But you  can see that Treasury is much better off borrowing and getting free tax collection, and not spending.  Their net interest charge have dropped below 2% the last time I looked.

The senators have notice this and would like it to continue. That is the Krugman problem,this obstacle cannot be computed in his central planner model. To the senate, this is a net gain for their states, if gives them a longer future. As long as Powell runs an efficient tax collection business, the senators are happy. But a banking crisis looms, still.

Large corporations have another two trillion in cash.  It is not in the Fed accounts where taxes are collected, it is out in the network where the cost of collateral is assessed, and that is what is taxes. Excess reserves are going to be a popular spot for money as the Fed continues hunting for taxes.

Krugman's theory has no place for congestion. The congested bet is deflation up to the tipping point, then the bet is how effective the devaluation. If it seems Powell can engineer a decent devaluation, then piling up money now and deleveraging is a positive bet on the post devaluation era. And finance is making the comparison relative to 1972, it looks like a good comparison. The senators may like a new revenue sharing deal post devaluation, Powell gets what he wants, we avoid a banking crisis, and Treasury can handle its own double spending.

And Krugman's theory does not acknowledge White Noise holiday, that is a different economy for three months, government barely functions. It is not likely worth anyone's time to do a deal until we know the election outcomes, including a host of new tax initiatives.

I think it will boil down to what MIT reports back to the Fed on new technology finance.  If they fake it, they will be exposed and banking risk goes way up. Otherwise we will hear sound judgements and we will expect an intelligent devaluation.  Wait four weeks then talk about stimulus, four weeks won't kill  many of us.

My plan let's Treasury double spend up to 6 trillion over 15 years. That is a good two recessions worth of bailouts.  But they do it opportunistically and spread it out by contract. That way we don;t have to have periodic bouts of intense central planning theory.

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