I can see a possible outcome that has us generating 200,000 antibody doses in Q2 of 2021. This starts protecting nurses and teachers. Then we can have some summer school make up for the mostly lost school year. The covid coin toss looks like a fair flip with the good news on a couple of covid fronts. However it will be a long slog of a deflationary recovery. Looking backward, the dating committee will call it three quarters of a recession, fairly bad coming right after 2008.
Looking back at the covid recession,, after recovery. What would we know? Just about everything that can be known on covid viruses and immune response. And the dating committee takes that knowledge backward and correlates with slow downs, it will all connect, and revised pricing fill the gaps. Hence, in the revisions, we should get a fairly stark example of value chains and requant shocks. That is the other side of Black Swans. Ex ante we know nothing, ex post we got a complete picture.
Prior to covid I was becoming a believer, thinking a one quarter mild recession. I really got Black Swanned.
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