Tuesday, October 6, 2020

The market takes a huge dump on stimulus fails

 A 1.5% dump.

Gamma is all about the central bank losing market share, really, about corporations used for shadow banking. A second derivative effect. The banks will collapse, then we are all screwed. 

This is readily apparent, we are at one and a half cycles of this, accelerated by the Black Swan. This is becoming common knowledge.


What to do about corporations?

Make them follow the proper accounting standards.  Those standards collapse their value into the equivalent loan/deposit ratio.  The 'market' is a weight adjusted set of aggregates that trade beta and gamma, the central bank distortions. Reduction of the system pretends to auto,ate. What if the bots managed proper accounting up to a counterfeit? Then the bots can just keep a cash swap in deposits, and the S/L can be automated.  This is the model, the aggregate model devolves into two distributions, histograms, deposits and loans in a cash in advance system where the bank is profitless.

That model exists, essentially, out side of the Black Sholes.   But Black Soles remains, it becomes all about finding unseen moments matching trades between loans and deposits. And that gets us back to a partitioned set of automate S/L, but in that case, government losses are realized exogenous, out of the banking network.  The pit boss is not collecting taxes for treasury. I mean, we still have options, they are based more on relative trade counts than time at the safe rate.

Black Soles has a loop

It is moment matching, es, done at irregular intervals as needed.   Matching the probability of price exceeding trend vs r, the safe rate. But r is doing the same right back at them, at the same time. Banks do the same. match the same moments in liquidity of deposits and loans.  It all till works fine, but there is a bounded uncertainty due to trade collisions. There is not optimum that has zero collisions. So, in essence, Black Sholes is a random process that minimizes collisions, and thus meets Ito's calculus. It will work, just don't get over congested in the trading pits.

Sandbox is both macro theory and installed technology.  he derivation above is just setting model boundaries.  Then using associative operations to move the market transaction costs to exogenous. Macro theory and contract reduction are tow similar things.  Probability matching. A provable contract will give you the probability of a fails to deliver, and it is risk adjustable.  Macroeconomics does the same, it has an error term. 

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