The costs of the ex ante in government

 One third of the budget, I claim, from dimensional analysis, is ex ante a known unknown. That is about 5% of the economy. We recover some of that with liquid set aside and short term credit. Maybe on net we are losing 2%.

The Fed tax covers the unexpected costs.  But the tax is not fair, the tax to cover the ex ante set asides is impossible to assign, write it off with double spending, it is about 2%.  Free the banks from tax collection, bind them with a reasonable monopoly fee, maybe of a fifth of a point, drop double spending to just under 2%. 

So, whenever we get confused about inflation, we can say,'Oh yes, 2%, more or less'. These are ball park, but they dictate the pit design.