Friday, November 27, 2020

Where is my deflation?

 Oil is at 45 and the ten year remains below .9%.  The dollar is down, down below the precovid level.

What happened? The dollar is down and oil up because foreign dollar trade is beginning to dodge Fed taxes. The Fed, thus has to increase taxes on domestic economy to keep the ten year yield safe for Biden.  But the rising oil prices will hit the covid down turn and we get a backward shock of moderation that gets oil back to 42.  

The ultimate cause, Fed taxes on money is deflationary and just about everyone is getting this clue. But not the Fed:

With the economy showing signs of slowing in the face a resurgence in coronavirus cases and a return to shutdowns in some areas, there has been market speculation that the Fed could decide to boost the size of its monthly purchases.

The minutes show that while no decision was taken on what to do or when, Fed officials were keeping their options open. Some analysts believe the Fed will make an announcement on boosting the bond purchase program at its next meeting on Dec. 15-16, especially if there has been no movement by Congress to provide more economic relief to individuals and businesses.

The minutes said that many Fed officials “judged that asset purchases helped provide insurance against risks that might reemerge in financial markets in an environment of high uncertainty.”

This move was well predicted based on CBO debt predictions.  We will almost certainly be looking at a two percent Fed tax for ten years.  This is unaffordable for foreign investors and will drive shadow banking through the roof.

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