Friday, January 8, 2021

More stimulus says Biden

 Good luck. 

The last stimulus cost us about 30 basis points on government debt. The next stimulus likely will cost us another 50 basis points, and interest costs going forward add about 300 billion to the budget. Treasury will start borrowing short and we go through a rate cycle.

We have moved the maturity structure to the right substantially, and likely pay slightly more than the ten year rate. Foreign investor need long term FX insurance, and the dollar varies by 20% over that period. Insurance on that is about 1%.  Government rates will be about two percent.  We need about a third of that debt sold to foreigners. 

Biden is wrong about rates being low as I mention several times, Jared Bernstein has been whispering in his ear.


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