Rates too low in the past?

The ten year breeched 1%, not a big deal but it brings up Milt Friedman. Milt also believed that prices were ex post, congestion management ex ante.

In this case, FX insurance lost a bunch as the reserve currency declined from covid peak. OPEC sellers suffered in this, and 1% is the price they need to recover. Notice the thermostat effect, another of Milt's ideas.  There is residual uncertainty in self sampled systems.  Markets are self sampled, the uncertainty best isolated as uncertainty in N, market size.  

The dollar took a nearly 20% dump.  Recovery means finding riskier, but higher yields in the near term.

The residual uncertainty gets paid, ex post. By whom, it was unhedgeable? Dollar users, the inflation tax, make it real, relatively smooth and bounded.