Mixed bag on jobs

The U.S. labor market is charging forward.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that non-farm payrolls rose to 312,000 in December, surging past expectations of 184,000. The BLS also upwardly revised its figure for non-farm payroll additions in November to 176,000, from 155,000 previously reported.The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in December. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in November, the lowest overall unemployment level since 1969. The uptick was due to the labor force participation rate increasing to 63.1% in December from 62.9% in November

The jobs created does not necessarily count jobs destroyed when retirees exit.  The key measure there is labor force participation, going up, because retirees exit. The dynamic is that employers do not just replace the retirees,they adjust job definitions to adapt to a labor force with younger, less experienced folks.  All of this good, the stats reported look good and labor is adapting, good.

But the slight uptick in employment starts to concern, it means our ability to adapt to changing demographics is being stretched late in the cycle.  Upticks in unemployment are a good leading indicator at cycle end. This is a minor uptick, but it shows that the 82 yard can kick is still on a precarious path.