Not the only theory

The basic theory—explained to me [ by a bunch of Swamp politicians] between weary sighs and defeated shrugs—goes like this: Washington is at an impasse that looks increasingly unbreakable. President Donald Trump is dug in; so is Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Democrats have public opinion on their side, but the president is focused on his conservative base. For a deal to shake loose in this environment, it may require a failure of government so dramatic, so shocking, as to galvanize public outrage and force the two parties back to the negotiating table.

The better they is the disasters are generally uncorrelated, or positively correlated with government actions.    In the case of recent history, disasters are generally caused by activities of the Bush family.

So, if we have a disaster, the politicians will freak, they always mostly freak.  Whatever happens, one thing is sure, politicians given another chance, will bankrupt the federal gov, and the shut down is still the better path.