We have a Gaussian mass centered around the one year waiting in line for access to the ten year, which is 19 basis points up.
Here is an abstract model. There were three cubicles, the six months and shorter, the one year, and the two to five; each cubicle held one bond trader. The left and right got laid off. So when the one year trader gets a short term deal, he has to shut one computer down, walk to the left cubicle, and log in to the other terminal. He charges points for the trip.
That is what is going on. If world trade picks up a bit, the ten year will suddenly jump and the cubicle in the middle is inundated.
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