Yes, it triggers the recession dating committee

A Recession Indicator Having A PERFECT Record For 70 Years Is About To Be Triggered

As the unemployment rate hovers around 4% (the number reported in the mainstream media) a more accurate unemployment number is 8.1%.  This takes into account those who have given up on finding work and those who are underemployed (workers who are part-time but want full-time employment),  This more accurate unemployment number is called the U-6, while we often hear the U-3 reported on the news. But even former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says the U-6 is a much more accurate indicator of where things are with regards to the economy.According to Lavorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increased 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low. Lavorgna added that a recession has occurred in all 11 instances regardless of the level of unemployment, according to CNBC. He pointed to the example of a recession in 1953 when the unemployment rate rose to just 3.1 percent, and in 1981 when the cyclical low in the unemployment rate was high at 7.2 percent.The unemployment rate which was reported February 1, rose to 4 percent in January from 3.9 percent. It is currently 30 basis points above the low of 3.7 percent reported in November.  Based on simple math, the unemployment rate is close to triggering a recession indicator. But Lavorgna says the chances are still only 1 in 3 that that happens.  “The current rise is notable and would be troubling if it continues,” notes Lavorgna. “The recent increase in the rate has been due to rising labor force participation, which is a sign of economic strength, not weakness.” According to CNBC, the reason the unemployment rate has risen is actually a good thing.  The long-term unemployed are returning to the workforce and looking for a job. “Generally job growth is positive just before a recession,” said LaVorgna.

The bold face is mine.

The unemployment rate, both U3 and U6 are on the list of things that trigger blue bars, so, yes they will be nearly perfect indicators.  The explanation about this time being different is camouflage, we just do not know yet.  But the betting is that the U6 will reach recession trigger levels, sometime this year. We may not get the blue bar until Q1 or Q2 of 2020, it is a fielders choice when we have a mild recession.