Wednesday, March 6, 2019

The curve is back to inverted

The ten year popped to 2.75%, that was unsustainable and Treasury prefers the inverted curve. We are not out of the woods, we are facing a global recession. Chinese autos are in contraction with three major factories shut.  Housing in China is taking a bit of a dump.  Italy, Germany in recession, France in rebellion of interest charges.

Under the circumstances, the ten year is not reaching 3.0% except just prior to m contractions. So foreign exporters to the USA cannot really afford the foreign exchange risk with the ten year so low.  Hence, trade collapse, global recession.

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