Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Jeff Frankel is delusional

Moore has been pro-cyclical in his recommendations for monetary policy – that is, opposing stimulus when the economy needed it and favoring stimulus when the economy did not.  First, when the Fed sought to boost the economy in response to the 2007-09 recession, Moore in 2009warned of possible hyperinflation and continued in 2010 to warn of the danger of rising inflation.  Needless to say, the inflation never materialized.
The stimulus drove oil prices back to $100 and was terminated.  A quick look at the charts, Jeff, shows that the Fed and Congress have been pro-cyclical for as long as we have had cycles, which is just about all the time.
If the Fed had followed Moore’s advice, it would have tightened monetary policy in 2010, when unemployment was 9 per cent, prolonging the great recession, but loosened monetary policy in 2018, with unemployment below 4 per cent.  That cycle of policy would have destabilized the economy.
The ten year rate jumped on the onset of  QE for a simple reason, it was not monetary stimulus, it was a bond tax needed to fund government and the shadow bankers raised rates to recover.
Nixon also broke the link with gold in 1971 and devalued the dollar, ending the Bretton Woods era of monetary stability.
Yes, and Trump will break the link with some of our government debt, as did FDR. We do this every generation, look at history and ignore everything the MIT crew invented.

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