Waves of roll overs

I noticed this, the Treasury curve remains stable, even with that big dip in the middle.  It will adjust, down mostly, then hold the position for a while.

This behavior is a value chain getting hit with huge wads of material, at long intervals, in this case debt. Treasury, G, is contracted with interest payments. That curve has two spectral points (think torque settings) , it should have four. It is cash and the ten year. Two lost points, the longer and the medium are unpriced. Sort of the egad moment, the reason we do probabilities of blue bar. The curve is thus jerky, off center missing supporting wealth at the margn.

But it is clear, our ability to refinance all these rollovers is an unfair constraint, ex post. So we have the long term pricing to do to make ex ante and ex post overlap and meet spectral constraints, and get pricing working again. We generally do the two point jumps with chaotic meetings of the elders, and I say, yahoo, we can do a  good job here. This is a known constraint and fairly distributed.