Thursday, September 19, 2019

A recession pattern

The implicit deflator ad ten-three month Treasury yields.

If I were to 'complete the sequence', I would guess a Bubba Clinton style recession, small, revised away with mild unemployment.  But I hazzard to guess a more refined version. We may not even get Blue Bar, we might just have rolling, regional  downturns, and barely stay above zero in the aggregate.

But, anyway, one can see Bubba and Obama had similar domestic policies, austerity and shutdowns. there is no real shock, just the grinding slugfest to keep government paying interest charges and states to cover the pensions.

The Repub pattern is similar, marked by a starting tax cut and ending with a massive deficit blow out.  Repubs are elected because none of the voters plan on paying for any of the crap they bought under Dems. We are at the point, no one wants to pay for this stuff and the interest charges are blowing the budget.

No comments: