First it was an oil shortage

CAMBRIDGE – Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the US housing-market crash of 2007-2009, and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, are often called “black swans.”


The term is meant to suggest that no one could have seen them coming. But, in fact, these episodes each involved known unknowns, rather than what former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously called “unknown unknowns.”

How Will the Great Cessation End?

After all, in each case, knowledgeable analysts were aware not only that such a thing could happen, but also that it was likely to happen eventually. Although the precise nature and timing of these events were not predictable with high probability, the severity of the consequences were. Had policymakers considered the risks and taken more preventive steps in advance, they might have averted or mitigated disaster.

And lil Bush knew it, remember his mantra almost a year before the crash? "Drill,drill, drill'  And we did, drill, most of the jobs gained coming out ot the crash were shale jobs.

The housing crap was an indirect result, and we will likely have another housing crash. One has to differentiate between myth and reality.

The rest of the article is a repeat of talking points, my brain doesn't process that crap any more.

But to the point. History says we will default. The previous 250 years of American history says we will find some way to default.  The last default is one that many of us, today, engineered in 1972.  None of are alive when the greatest generation defaulted in 1932.

We will default, for one simple reason. It is the easiest method to deal with the 'This time is different' crowd, like this author.