Sunday, June 21, 2020

Central banking in the conferences

the Fed has once again reduced its policy rate almost to zero, while renewing its large-scale asset purchases and undertaking an unprecedented program of emergency lending that has all but erased the conventional boundary line separating monetary from fiscal policy.

More Alt-M stuff.
The includes taxation, do not let anyone tell you different. Look to see who is paying the Fed taxes.

Only "by focusing first on keeping inflation low," and not on propping up employment numbers, did future Fed chairs restore the American economy and its labor force. "Unemployment fluctuates no matter what," Ireland explains, "but keeping inflation low and stable can promote the Fed's full employment objective."
Translation on inflation. He means a trimmed mean from a complete basket of consumer items.  So he wants to keep the price hikes for the growth sector at less than 2%.  Like making us all accommodate the supply of the stuff we keep buying.  Not a bad idea, in and of itself. But this assumes constant velocity of money, I beleive.  The better idea is to target the trimmed skew, haw many consumer items are removed one tail to center the current distribution. Keep that total change at less than 2%.

When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) first considered replacing its existing inflation-targeting regime with nominal gross domestic product (NGDP) targeting, the idea didn't get much of a hearing. Several years removed from that initial discussion, Binder gives NGDP level targeting a second look, arguing it compares favorably to inflation targeting when it comes to weathering new threats to central bank credibility and independence.
Targeting a growth in NGDP is targeting a mean. One really wants to target the current change in NGDP , which would be a skew adjustment.

A good rule of thumb: Depositors and borrowers manage variance. Entry and exits manage mean. Pit boss manages skew.
Post-pandemic, Singh and Goel write, central banks should reduce the size of their balance sheets, and by extension, their role in lending markets. Unwinding central bank balance sheets, while freeing up more space for the assets commercial banks can hold on theirs, "is likely to improve transmission to the short-end money market rates."
Central banks collect taxes and that is why the yield curve is foul. 

When central banks apply an interest charge they are telling us the number of items we need in the consumer basket to operate at full liquidity.  The pit boss is adjusting items per basket, like in the Walmart model. That forces us to adjust our consumer binomial distribution to be Gaussian centered so we are just as Gaussian as the next guy. When we contract the number of items in our basket drops, we have less stuff and must engage in home production or find a better currency. Home production is kinetic energy, not recorded directly but it becomes a factor as it allows us to partition our home goods off the books. Untaxed kinetic energy shows up in the structural deficit, as the number of kinetic actions per person untaxed.

When the Fed taxes us, it is telling us how much taxes we should pay so governments can keep the same number of items in their basket. We are supposed to notice that Congress has too many eggs in the basket.




No comments: