Friday, November 6, 2020

How much relative to the Fed

Turkey’s central bank has stepped in to backstop much of Ankara’s financial response to the coronavirus crisis, buying a record $5 billion worth of government bonds since end-March.

Multiply by forty, and this is one quarters worth.   This is like half a Fed QE from the previous cycle. But Turkey's bond market is not very liquid and resulting tax remits back to Erdogan highly volatile. This happened this years. In the years prior the Turkish bank cut rates way down from 15%, they were already suffering a Nixon shock. Consumer inflation dropped dramatically along with.

Courtesy ZH

But that rate cut came with a recession, it was a third variable, in much the same way the Nixon Shock.  Turkey has cross a zero point, tipped to the other side.  

They are now taxing the government bond market and inflation is likely to stay cool as the new tax grows and hits their retail banking sector. Erdogan will do nothing but add to debt:


Turkish Libra will start collecting in reserve balances, but the shadow banking and black market should grow considerably and taxes difficult to collect. 

The US needs to show how this is fixed using an opportunistic inflation tax over some longer period. The effect is centralizing,  neutral prices will hover a zero inflation, but Treasury induced inflation is a stable, positive and small number.  In other words, we are going to fuck up anyway, so let us fuck up with less volatility.

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