I got white swanned on the vaccines

 I had another two quarters before we saw these good  results reported. 

I had partial vaccines, maybe 70% effective, and antibody boosters. I was computing in quarters, as these experiments were coming out quarterly. I asked 'How  many combinations of quarters are needed for a second generation vaccine?'  But mRNA came sooner than I thought, and the spike protein more vulnerable than I thought, and I was long by a half year. The good news is that looking dumb comes with the freedom to go to restaurants, sooner.

In the optimum portfolio model:  I am counting coin tosses needed to cover he covid problem,the depreciation cycle through the biotech sector. Coin tosses are liquidity, my head is looking at a binomial histogram and asking, how high and long is that future histogram, in units of coin tosses. I ask? 'If all traders the same information as me, how would we all organize in an entropy  maximizing market. 

We would adjust interest charges on option trades to make a fair coin toss. If I have a good boundary condition on the sector, I get a starting likelihood of combinatorials. A start at estimating the rank of an optimum balanced monte carlo generator for market events. And that can be converted to binomial with interest charges, I have a discrete, finite bandwidth Black-Scholes based on maximum entropy.