Our 'check mark' recovery will be backward revised to a U.
The check mark corner rounded off, and it will look like a dead cat bounce in a U. The reason is that we had a year long Black swan and a resulting time inconsistency in pensions needs to be worked out. We will find many more retirements than expected and unexpected taxes from the Swamp.
We will have to wait on California and New York, both, this time. Both of them have a severely out of balance public sector at the moment. Listen to daBlowsio and estimate how long he needs to put a bit of balance back? Likely impossible to restore the system until NYC gets a new mayor.
We have the same problem with the mayor of LA, and he wants out, he is looking to escape into the Swamp. A lot of these large cities are stuck with precommits from the politicians, enforced by the unions. o nothing can really get fixed again until the next election cycle. We get the same sluggishness that little Bush left us with.
Chicago is hopeless, they have sold off their revenue sources to avoid rebalance and that state is bankrupt. The unions are moving all this liability up the ladder, and that makes bailouts way too costly in units of earmarks.
Remember the LA teachers strike?
The resolution of that strike was a Unconstitutional restriction on the LA supervisors, and city politicians. They were all required to support the prop 15 tax increase, and the contract was to be paid from that. The San Diego poliicians gotthemselves locked inot the same trap. And this is why Garcetti wants to leave town. DaBlowsio will soon want to make that same exit, and nothing can be done until an election resolves their fates.
Remember the previous cycle? California was trapped until Brown won the election. He is a supporter of teachers but with shrewd and luck he avoided future legal entanglements. He was the better lawyer.
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