Thursday, November 5, 2020

No mandate

 The four largest are Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, California and Pennsylvania. Trump may take Pennsylvania and still lose.  Trump remains ahead in Pennsylvania and about 95% of the vote counted.

It could be 270 vs 268. I call that a 1/8 probability, rounded considerably.  At this point it is a coin toss in the remaining three states if Trump takes Pennsylvania and  Biden takes Nevada.  Hardly a mandate, more of a split government.  There is nothing to see for the governors of Illinois, California or New York, the federal funds are not coming without a huge cost. The multipliers drop way below one because of the earmark trade that needs to be accomplished; and those earmarks are very costly.

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