The Fed follows the one year Treasury

 

Notice the blue line follows after the red. The prime rate is pegged to the effective funds. 

The one year Treasury rater dropped off a cliff with the covid Black Swan during the flight to safety. Commercial paper, corporate loans, dropped by 20% in volume about a month after the flight to safety.

We are right back where we were in 2015, as if we went through the normal Swamp cycle. Except, of course, the Fed taxes are going to double.

And that is the trick, keep government liquid.  All this stuff about some expectations spoofing and NGDP growth does not work.