Between the five year treasury and the ten year. Been that way for quite a while.
That number is the transaction and insurance costs of refinancing all the short term debt. The curve acts like it is doing one thing, processing short term debt into long term debt and keeping the ten year under 3%.
But, I fear, the long term sustainable ten year is 2.1% to 2.5%, which I base on the smoothest Euler path for the ten year yield since 1980, on the charts. We are within range, actually. We have what we need to do a Euler smooth in that range for ten years, then the boomers start dying off.
We suffer the quantization noise of getting consensus on that, that noise kills us, especially New York and California. California is exhausted from all the government programs arriving since NCLB. Don't listen to the medical establishment, listen to mathematicians who know quantized flows. Botanists who know why branches of a tree die and cause skew in the flow, an inefficiency.
We got that, how to get consensus and just write off Illinois and no more, that is our problem and California is on the edge of being a narco state. California is the dead branch that kills the tree.
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