Saturday, March 2, 2019

Adiabatic change

“The results today suggest a much bigger story: The sales pace has finally shifted into a lower gear.”
If they double clutched, then it was a requant. But I claim this is normal late cycle car stuff, well observed. The scofflaw queue stable, been-there-done-that. 

But all the auto industry, worldwide, is contracting, even China, at the same time even. That leads me to believe this is a third variable problem, a more worrisome issue. Because housing is dumping, the Fed is easing but ten year rising. Like a Euler bridge too far, like this is the cycle we split the pot.

No comments: