Wednesday, May 15, 2019

It is now regular news

A 25 basis point plunge in the curve.  Treasury cannot straighten that out, jump on the five year?

That is the problem, right there. We have bad motion on the part of Treasury, because it  aggregates the Y in MV=PY.  This leaves volatile budget decisions having to do with programs being coprime, always clashing.   If you put these large accounts in the money market, they keep their own S/L, then commutative property happens, and they reorder slightly to minimize clash. Y ge expressed in linear forms.

The Fed has to let that settle. Currently, the S and the L in each account is the one or the other, the Fed is not trading S/L and its delta, it is in a short loop involving Treasury.  A never ending loop that corrects, partially each generation.

The New Fed needs to compete for and get those large government accounts and manage the true S/L, via market making on a risk equalized basis.  The New Fed is willing to pay Congress a large amount for those accounts, they are endogenous gains to the Fed. Let us make a deal with Congress, 15 year renewable. We know the numbers, if not, tell us.

This will help, another in the Scary Chart Index from Zero Hedge:

It is not about predicting blue bar, no longer the issue.  It is the red bar, that generational bar, just in front, like now is a good time.  Our hologram is good, we have very clear vision of all three spectral motions in our Hamiltonian. We can marginally improve this whole process, not eliminate it.

So we get a 5% percent endogenous gain from 20 percent of the economy. We get back almost half the defaulted amount. The New fed is non profit, the net inflation is expensed across the board. Likely we might get another half point from other productivities. But, in any event, a few years down the road we will be looking at low inflation, once again. But the tolerance for high debt is reduced, we live with 15 points less debt/.GDP for a while. Almost all of this endogenous gains, free a result of Moore's law. The long run we hit the final rock bottom, unavoidable cost of that foul Constitutional clause, a fixed white noise infinite fee for a blunder done long ago.

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