Metastable, not weak

Meanwhile, in a lengthy piece purporting to explain why Beijing decided to start playing 'hardball' so late into the talks (though, to be sure, other reports suggest that Beijing had taken a hard line almost from the start), WSJ claimed that President Xi and the senior leadership interpreted Trump's attacks on Fed Chairman Jay Powell as a sign that Trump would be ready to compromise.The reason? It was interpreted as evidence that Trump secretly believed the US economy was more fragile than the official data reflected. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy has stabilized, in part thanks to a massive stimulus program.

We are at transition and our generations will be uncertain until they overlap.  This is where we divide the transition, those who bet the ex ante  MMT and those who bet the ex post MMT.  We have a serious, generation contradiction between the shorts and longs as we transit between generations.

Looking beyond the weak, beyond the rebalance, the US economy will be half as volatile as the prior monetary cycle.   My claim is that is is a provable existential choice, we will be almost twice as accurate. The ex post bet is a good bet, barring the unknown unknowns.