Reversion to mean in ten year ield

Bloomberg:

The relentless slide in Treasury 10-year yields may be about to end and it could be time to go short, according to technical analysts at RBC Capital Markets and JPMorgan Chase & Co.U.S. yields will probably rise in the short term, though they are probably still in a longer-term downtrend, RBC Capital’s Technical Strategist George Davis wrote in a note Thursday.“The one common theme that stands out for 10-year yields is valuations -- with overbought readings and study divergences presenting the scope for short-term corrections to materialize,” Davis wrote. “We view such corrections as a buying opportunity in bonds based on established downtrends for yields.”

I have the longer term mean of the ten year at 2.3, a 30 point basis jump.

Trivial, except the interest charges are fifth of sixth on the budget list, and a 30  baiss points is about 70 billion.  The unexpected change computes to a series of budget meetings in smaller programs, and that triggers calls back to the senator from folks back home.  That is a crawl back in sandbox terms, and a nightmare for small state senators. That is a nearly hard bound.